Yemen War Since 2015

AD – MPE: 0.05

ND – MPE: 0.18

An in-depth UNDP-report called “Assessing the Impact of War on Yemen” from 2019 estimates that 0.23 million Yemenis will have died as a result of the war and economic blockade, if the war ends in 2019. The Saudi-led coalition was responsible for around ¾ of civilian deaths. Its direct targeting of critical infrastructure and the naval blockade of the country are the main causes for the humanitarian crisis, which will have killed most of the victims according to the UNDP-report.

The US, Britain, France and Germany sold huge amounts of weapons including cluster munitions to Saudi Arabia before and during the war. The US also supports Saudi Arabia with technology, logistics, intelligence, target selection, training, air refueling for Saudi planes and diplomacy. The US and Britain directly supported the naval blockade of the country. The support by the US and Britain is highly significant. Both countries need to be considered war parties. I blame them for 15 to 35 percent of the victims from the Saudi-led military campaign and embargo.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.15 to 0.21. I choose 0.18 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.03 to 0.07. I choose 0.05 as the most plausible estimate.