Syrian Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.17

The Wikipedia-article called “Casualties of the Syrian Civil War” cites two estimates for the total number of civilians killed since 2011, which range from 0.11 to 0.22 million. Both estimates come from pro-opposition organizations. Their estimates for the number of civilians killed by government forces and its Russian allies range from 0.09 to 0.2 million. If these numbers were correct, the Assad regime and its allies would be responsible for roughly 90 percent of all civilian victims. The numbers for combatant casualties by one of these organizations – the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights – show that this is highly unlikely. They claim that the number of combatants killed by the opposing sides in the conflict was roughly the same. From this we would have to conclude that the rebel forces killed many times more combatants than civilians. We know that the opposition fighters were dominated by Islamist extremists who committed many atrocities against civilians. So their estimates for the number of civilians killed by opposition forces are probably far too low.

The United States supported opposition groups with money, arms, training and propaganda. Britain supported the opposition with propaganda. This support was highly significant. I blame them for 5 to 15 percent of the people killed by the opposition. This number is highly uncertain.

The independent research project called “Airwars” claims on their website that about 0.02 million civilians were killed in airstrikes by the US-led coalition.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.09 to 0.27 million. I choose 0.17 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by advanced democracies go up to 0.04 million. I choose 0.02 million as the most plausible estimate.