Comparing the 74 Largest Mass Killings by Democracies and Autocracies 1769-2018

Abstract: This study analyzes the 74 largest mass killings since 1769. All numbers are based on expert estimates. Its main findings are counterintuitive: democratic pioneers killed significantly more innocent people in the last 250 years in relation to their population sizes than dictatorships. Even if we use the highest expert estimates on the number of people killed by authoritarian regimes and the lowest estimates for the number of people killed by democratic pioneers, they still add up to a higher average state muder rate for democracies. Democracies have shown great concern for the rights of their own citizens. But they often acted like dictatorships when dealing with noncitizens. Since mass prosperity and education are the most important root causes of both democracy and power, the modern world system has been dominated by democratic great powers like Britain, France and the US. The astonishingly high murder rates of democracies don’t reflect a greater willingness, but greater capacities to conquer and kill. Power had a bigger impact on state murder rates than regime type.

Introduction

The following analysis compares large mass killings by advanced democracies and nondemocracies since 1769. Mass killings include civilian deaths in war, genocide, politicide, ethnic cleansing and state repression. They also include famines and epidemics which resulted from state crimes. These politically-induced famines and epidemics make up a big proportion of the mass killings by both democracies and dictatorships. I will often use the general term “democide” for all the different categories of political murder.

The short articles for the 74 mass killings down below are not intended as short summaries of the historical episodes. The goal is to explain how I came up with the numbers.

I mostly follow the evidence collected by historian Matthew White, who collects expert estimates on the largest mass atrocities in human history. His data on the “One Hundred Deadliest Multicides” can be found in his magisterial book: “Atrocities”. The book contains a ranking of the top 100, which I used as a guide for my analysis. I also use estimates by the political scientist Rudolph Rummel, who has also analyzed huge amounts of data on the largest state crimes. For the post-1945 mass killings I often used estimates from the Website “Mass Atrocity Endings” by researchers from the World Peace Foundation at Tafts University. Wikipedia also served as a useful tool to find estimates by expert historians. In most cases I used several sources with different estimates.

Any such analysis inevitably leaves out many smaller atrocities. But we do have enough historical data to compare the largest state crimes in the last 250 years, which probably cover at least 70 percent of all mass killings. I discuss the 74 episodes of democide which I believe were the largest mass killings from 1769 to 2018. They make up all the episodes I could find in which plausible estimates claim that the death toll exceeds 150,000. This limit may bias the sample in a way that fits my theoretical preconceptions. Maybe authoritarian regimes killed much higher numbers of people in countless small and medium-sized crimes. But many smaller and medium-sized atrocities by both dictatorships and democracies easily come to mind. The 74 episodes don’t include many mass killings by democratic frontrunners like Britain, the US, France, Germany or Israel. Many atrocities committed by nondemocratic allies of the West and some colonial famines didn’t make it on the list either. The appendix contains a list of mass killings by both democracies and non-democracies which deserve to be considered for an updated and expanded list of the largest mass killings.

The goal of this analysis is not to come up with precise numbers, but very rough estimates about plausible ranges. These ranges can serve as plausibility checks for our intuitions, basic concepts and opinions. Most people assume that democracies have been much less violent than nondemocracies in modern history. The main goal of this analysis is to find out whether the best available estimates tend to support this view.

Any comparison of democracies and dictatorships requires clear definitions. I used three different definitions and two indicators of what I call “advanced democracies”. All three definitions and indicators are meant to distinguish the most democratic countries in a specific age from all countries which were less democratic or not democratic at all. Simply put: I compare the democratic frontrunners to the rest of the world. My choice of definitions and indicators is arbitrary. But I did choose them carefully.

The countries I coded as advanced democracies are the ones that most historians and policy experts view as the democratic pioneers of the time periods in question. Only a few of the classifications are controversial.

I chose three different definitions and two indicators, because the standard for what we consider a democratic society has increased over time. I used a definition with low standards for democracy before the end of World War I, which does not even require women’s suffrage. Much higher standards for democracy reduce the number of democracies to zero for much of the time period. I believe it makes sense to compare the crimes of democracies like Britain, the United States and Belgium to the crimes of less democratic societies in the 19^th century. I have used the Polity IV-dataset for this time period. I have classified “Democracies” and “Open Anocracies” in this dataset as advanced democracies. Roughly 13.1 percent of the world’s population lived in democracies and open anocracies between 1819 and 1918. I used data from “Our World in Data” to calculate this number. The website “Gapminder” also uses Polity IV for its “Democracy score” under “Society” in its interactive statistical toolkit. Countries receiving Polity scores of 1-5 are classified as open anocracies, countries with higher scores as democracies.

Polity IV ranks the German Kaiserreich as an open anocracy after 1890. Many will disagree with this ranking, because they see the Kaiserreich as a deeply authoritarian and militaristic state, which paved the way for both World Wars and the Nazi Holocaust. These widespread views are rooted in the belief of a German Sonderweg – special way -, which supposedly goes back many decades before the rise of the Nazi movement. But research by historians like Christopher Clark and Margaret Anderson convincingly shows that the Kaiserreich was not significantly less democratic than Britain, France or the USA after 1890. Anderson’s fact-filled book “Practicing Democracy: Elections and Political Culture in Imperial Germany” has convinced me that Germany was among the most democratic nations on the planet from 1890 until Hitler’s power grab. But even if we would not include “open anocracies” as advanced democracies in our analysis, the big picture would not change much.

If I would have used the same low standard for democracy for the time after World War I, many countries would count as democracies which few people consider democratic, for example Putin’s Russia. My much higher standard for the time after 1918 requires a country to be a liberal and effective democracy. I have used the V-Dem-dataset for this time period. I have classified countries as advanced democracies, if they scored above 8.3 on the V-Dem-Rule of Law Index and above 0.45 on the V-Dem-Liberal Democracy Index for 3 out of 5 years. Roughly 16.5 percent of the world’s population lived in pioneering democracies between 1919 and 2018. The V-Dem-Website has interactive graphic tools, which contain all the relevant data for this time period.

I found no ranking of democracies for the 18^th century. So I decided to analyze credible historical sources to identify the most democratic societies for the fifty years from 1769 to 1818. I only ranked Britain and the US since 1776 as advanced democracies for this time period – and France for some years during the French Revolution. All three societies weren’t democratic by today’s standard. But I decided to include this time period, so that my analysis covers the American and French Revolutions, the Industrial Revolution in England and the end of the Transatlantic Slave Trade. In this time period only 2.3 percent of the world population lived in advanced democracies.

According to these three definitions and two indicators somewhere between 2 and 25 percent of the world population lived in advanced democracies in the modern age. On average around 14.53 percent of the world population lived in advanced democracies between 1769 and 2018. So nondemocratic or semidemocratic forces would have had to have killed roughly 5.9 times as many innocent people as the democratic frontrunners, if they have had a higher rate of state murder as the democratic frontrunners. My analysis shows that they almost certainly killed far fewer people than that.

I give three estimates for every mass crime: a plausible low estimate, a plausible high estimate and a most plausible estimate. This allows sceptical readers to use lower or higher estimates, which they find more convincing, for their own calculations. I used the most plausible estimates for my main analysis. But I also used the other estimates to test scenarios which are less likely, but realistic.

The most plausible estimates are my own subjective best guesses. Nothing more. I am not an expert for any of these crimes. So I don’t regard these numbers as scientific. But the cited expert estimates are the most scientific ones I was able to find, unless explicitly stated otherwise. The most plausible estimates are usually the average of all available estimates, unless I regard some estimates as more scientific than others.

This study suggests a strong positive correlation between democracy and state murder rates in modern history. It needs to be emphasized that this correlation does not prove any causal link between regime type and state murder rates. Democracy is highly correlated with many other variables, which could very well explain any association with state murder rates. I am in fact convinced that mass prosperity and education are the most important root causes of both democracy and power. Democracy almost certainly reduced state murder rates. But power had a much stronger impact on state murder rates than regime type. The astonishingly high murder rates of advanced democracies don’t reflect a greater willingness, but greater capacities to conquer and kill. Democracies weren’t more prone to violence. They had greater opportunities to get their way by force.

Harvard-professor Steven Pinker wrote to me in an e-mail exchange about this study: “You make some excellent points, but I think it is ill-advised to use ‘democracy’ as the common denominator behind these atrocities, since it’s just a correlate. We’re living in an age in which democracy is under threat.” He is right to be concerned. The correlation between democracy and state murder rates can be dangerously misleading. So why should we focus at all at the correlation between democracy and state murder rates? Why even talk about regime type in this context, if power seems to be of much greater importance? Because even the correlation challenges the idea that Western democracies have been the most important force for good both at home and abroad throughout history. Many people assume that mass killings by democracies were rare exceptions. If this were true, the impact of democracy on state murder rates would outweigh or at least match the impact of power. It does not. Mass killings by democracies must not be reduced to the footnotes of our history books.

In more than half of all the largest mass killings advanced democracies supported nondemocratic perpetrators. This support obviously gives them some degree of responsibility. How much? This depends on the amount and type of support. In my analysis I mention the different categories of support – money, arms, intelligence and diplomacy. Then I give my estimate about the significance of this support. In most cases I assigned less than 10 percent of the blame to the advanced democracy which supported a nondemocratic perpetrator. When experts believe that the support was highly significant, I assigned 10 percent or more of the blame to the country which supported the main perpetrator. In most of these cases victims and perpetrators also agree that the support was highly significant. I consider these estimates to be very conservative. For every single mass crime we could easily find good arguments for assigning higher percentages of the blame to the advanced democracy.

Nonstate actors were among the main perpetrators in many of the mass killings. I only ranked them as a democratic or nondemocratic force, if they were part of a nondemocratic regime or advanced democracy before or after they became nonstate actors. Only if this wasn’t the case, did I not count their victims in any category. In most cases they were part of a nondemocratic regime at some point. Including these cases may give my analysis a bias which is unfavourable to nondemocratic forces. It is much harder, if not impossible for nonstate actors to be truly democratic. They also have stronger incentives to target civilians when they are confronted by a superior enemy.

Some mass atrocities overlap. The most important example is World War II, which overlaps with Hitler, Stalin, Japanese imperialism, Mao and Chiang Kai-Chek. I will first discuss democides by all sides during World War II. The atrocities committed by participants of WWII which were committed before or after the war are discussed separately.

I have limited my analysis to non-combatant deaths in this analysis. The main reasons is that blaming any side in a conflict for dead soldiers requires an in-depth analysis of the whole conflict from beginning to end. In most wars the question of who started them is highly controversial. The killing of combatants is never as bad as the killing of innocents. In a just war the killing of combatants is an act of heroism, whereas the killing of innocent people is always wrong.

I don’t believe that this focus on noncombatant deaths strongly biases the analysis in any direction. If we would include the killing of combatants, we would certainly have to add millions to the number of killings by nondemocracies in WWII. But most wars by democratic pioneers were colonial and imperial wars, which they clearly started. So their numbers would also go up a lot in many cases.

The main motivation for most of the wars fought by democratic pioneers around the globe were neither national survival nor the spread of democracy and human rights, but self-interested colonialism and imperialism. Only very few of the wars fought by democratic frontrunners during the episodes discussed here can be viewed as just wars. The most important example by far is of course World War II. But we need to keep in mind that Soviet forces, Chinese Nationalists and Communists and other guerilla forces did most of the fighting against the Nazi regime and Imperial Japan. In fact, the Soviet and Chinese armies lost roughly 17 times more soldiers in battle than the US and Britain. So nondemocracies were strongly overrepresented in the struggle against the Axis powers. Like the democracies – and even more so – they fought for national survival.

Lincoln’s fight against slavery in the Confederate South and the Korean War can be viewed as necessary and legitimate. Both wars do not rank in the top ten. Nondemocracies also fought smaller wars with legitimate aims. The Vietnamese communists ended the terror reign of the Khmer Rouge. The United States supported Khmer Rouge resistance against the Vietnamese occupation with indirect military support and diplomacy at the UN. The genocide in Rwanda was ended by the forces of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, which has ruled Rwanda as a dictatorship since then. France supported the Habyarimana regime and the Interahamwe militias. Many wars and uprisings against colonialism also had ethically justified aims. Many of them were fought against foreign rule by advanced democracies. This is certainly true for the indigenous resistance against settler colonialism in North America, Australia and New Zealand, the Haitian Revolution against slavery and the Algerian War of Independence.

In all of the wars with legitimate aims democracies and dictatorships committed horrific war crimes. Authoritarian regimes and guerilla movements lost a disproportionately high number of fighters in wars, uprisings and revolutionary struggles with legitimate aims.

No quantitative analysis like this one can ever replace qualitative assessments of major crimes. The Nazi-Holocaust was a unique atrocity in many ways. The mass killing of men, women and children in concentration camps, which were built for this purpose, is worse than the killing of innocents in a war. And it is certainly in a different category than the mass killing in politically-induced famines. No quantitative study like this one can ever replace nuanced discussions about qualitative aspects, unique features, moral complexities and historical contexts of mass atrocities.

This analysis of direct state killings is only the first in a number of comparisons between democracies and nondemocracies in this project. It does not include any economic or environmental crimes, which are highly complex, indirect and spread out widely over time and space. Unconventional crimes like global warming, sanctions, the arms trade or unfair trade deals are discussed in part V. These crimes have been growing in importance since the birth of modernity. Modern societies have developed extremely sophisticated economic, political and bureaucratic systems. The same is true for their crimes. Modern nations use more complex and sophisticated methods to pursue their economic and security interests. Any comparison of crimes committed by democracies and nondemocracies which doesn’t discuss unconventional state crimes is misleading – and increasingly so, the closer it gets to the present age. A narrow analytic focus on direct killings probably distorts the results in favour of the most modern nations, which tend to be democracies. I have nevertheless completely ignored unconventional crimes in this analysis.

The next paragraphs summarize my main findings. In the appendix after this I discuss sources, indicators and potential mass atrocities for an updated list of mass killings. Then I present my short summaries and basic numbers for the 74 largest mass killings from 1769 to 2018, which I have also posted as 74 separate blog posts. I ask the reader to discuss specific crimes below the 74 specific blog posts at the beginning of this blog. They can be accessed via the country categories on the sidebar of this website.

Main Results

According to my estimates roughly 243 million civilians have been killed by governments and insurgencies in the 74 largest mass killings from 1769 to 2018. Nondemocracies have killed roughly 154.72 million innocent people in the last 250 years. Advanced democracies killed about 88.36 million in the same time period.

The average population living in pioneering democracies during this time period made up 14.53 percent of the world population. So if nondemocracies would have killed roughly 5.9 times as many innocent people as advanced democracies since 1769, they would have had roughly the same average state murder rate. According to my most plausible estimates nondemocracies did not even kill twice as many innocent people. Advanced democracies killed roughly 36.35 percent of all the civilians killed by governments and insurgencies in the 74 largest mass killings.

The average rate of state murder of civilians by advanced democracies was about 6.08 million per percentage point of the world population during this time period. The rate of state murder for nondemocracies was about 1.81 million per percentage point of the world population. So the state murder rate of pioneering democracies was more than three times as high as the state murder rate of nondemocracies. In other words: In relation to population sizes advanced democracies murdered more than three times as many people as nondemocracies in 250 years of modern history.

State Murder Rates

Mass Killings Per Percentage Point of World Population 1769-2018

……

Advanced Democracies: 6.08 Million

Dictatorships: 1.81 Million

State Murder Rates

It is not clear how many of their own citizens were murdered by democratic frontrunners. But the number of citizens killed is probably far lower than one percent of the total number of civilians murdered by advanced democracies. Citizens have never been the main target of a mass crime committed by democracies. Even when democratic pioneers killed large numbers of people on their own territory, most of the victims weren’t citizens. The ethnic cleansings of indigenous people in the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and slavery in the US are horrific examples.

So democracies have shown much greater respect for the human rights of their own citizens. Democracy works astonishingly well… but for citizens only! How well democracy works for noncitizens is an entirely different question.

The six largest mass atrocities – World War II, British India, Mao, Stalin, the Congo Free State and the Taiping Wars – account for roughly three quarters of all victims. I may have the numbers for some of these largest crimes totally wrong. I am no expert for any of them. What happens if we take the lowest plausible estimates for the crimes committed by the democratic frontrunners for these six mass atrocities and the highest plausible estimates for the crimes committed by nondemocracies? This highly unlikely scenario is strongly biased in favour of the advanced democracies. Let’s do the math anyway. The big picture changes a lot. Now the democratic pioneers killed roughly 58 million civilians. Nondemocracies killed about 195 million. Advanced democracies had a state murder rate of almost 4 million per percentage point of the world population. Nondemocracies had a state murder rate of roughly 2.3 million. So even in this strongly biased scenario the state murder rate of democracies would have been over 50 percent higher.

Even if we take the lowest plausible estimates for all of the mass killings by advanced democracies, they add up to roughly 51.3 million victims. The highest plausible estimates for all of the nondemocratic mass killings amount to a total of about 226 million victims. So even if we bias every single one of the 74 mass killings in favour of the democratic perpetrators in this extreme way, the numbers still imply that the democratic frontrunners had a higher state murder rate from 1769 to 2018.

After 1945 democracies did have a much lower rate of state murder than nondemocracies. But this study excludes all the unconventional crimes discussed in part V of this project, which became much more common after WWII. Whether we should add some of the numbers from the unconventional crimes to the democide numbers is a very tricky question, which depends on many scientific and philosophical assumptions.

Of particular importance is the debate about how much blame we should assign to a government which supports another government’s crimes. Most of the largest crimes after 1945 were committed by nondemocratic forces which were supported by democratic powers. In fact, only 3 of the 39 largest mass killings after 1945 were committed by nondemocratic forces which were not supported by an advanced democracy. In 33 of them advanced democracies supported one of the nondemocratic perpetrators in some way. That’s almost 85 percent of all cases. In 36 cases advanced democracies were either main perpetrators themselves or supported one of them. That’s around 92 percent of all cases. This clearly shows that the use of allied forces is an extremely important characteristic of modern imperialism. This fact complicates any debate about victim numbers. The low state murder rates of advanced democracies after 1945 may simply indicate that they have more often used their money, power and influence to let others do the dirty work for them. Their support was one of the reasons why the 33 nondemocracies on this list which they supported after 1945 were able to kill on such a large scale. On average I blamed democratic pioneers for around 7 percent of all the victims which were murdered by their nondemocratic allies – both before and after 1945. I consider this a very low average. If we would assign higher percentages of the blame to the democratic patrons, this would dramatically increase their state murder rates after 1945.

The high murder rate of nondemocracies after 1945 is driven to a large extent by one extreme outlier: Mao’s communist regime killed more than 23 times as many people as the second largest mass killing: the Korean War. The main reason for the large number of victims was the largest famine in history, which was the result of a fanatical and brutal dictatorship that ruled over the most populous country on the planet.

The lower state murder rate after 1945 suggests, but does not prove that democracy significantly reduces state murder rates once it reaches a certain threshold. The dramatic reduction of democratic state murder rates after 1945 is certainly encouraging. We can make democracy work for noncitizens!

To get an idea about the plausibility of the final results, we can also compare the number of crimes by regime type in different magnitude ranges. We need to keep in mind that nondemocracies would have had to have killed more than 5 times as many civilians in modern history. In this comparison I count the Third Reich and Imperial Japan separately.

The democratic pioneers have committed 5 crimes with more than 2 million innocent victims – British India, the Congo Free State, their crimes in the two world wars and the Transatlantic Slave Trade. Nondemocracies committed 11 crimes in this category: Mao, Hitler, Imperial Japan, Stalin, their crimes in the Taiping War, World War I, the Transatlantic and Arab Slave Trades, the Russian and Chinese civil wars, the Anglo-Sudan War. Any criticism of my results which claims that my final results are totally off the mark will probably have to focus on these 16 largest mass killings. Only in the 10 to 20 million range have nondemocracies committed 3 times more mass crimes than advanced democracies. They haven’t committed four or five times as many crimes in any category.

Democide Victims

Number Of Killings

Advanced democracies were either perpetrators themselves or supported a perpetrator in 64 of the 74 largest mass killings from 1769 to 2018. That amounts to over 86 percent of all cases. So democratic frontrunners were at least partially responsible for some of the killings in about 17 out of 20 of the largest mass killings in modern history. We need to keep in mind that most of these countries are in Western Europe or North America. They were home to about 14.5 percent of the world population.

Advanced democracies directly killed civilians in 32 of the 74 largest mass killings around the world in modern history. This means that they murdered people in roughly 43 percent of all the large mass killings.

It is worth paying attention to the number of mass crimes committed by countries which are advanced democracies today. Many of them gained massive power before they became democracies and used this power to slaughter millions of innocent people. Germany and Japan are the most important examples. Of course it would be wrong to blame today’s governments for their country’s past atrocities. But this legacy certainly brings responsibility.

28 Countries have been advanced democracies continuously for one generation from 1984 to 2018: USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, Israel, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Costa Rica, Ireland, New Zealand, Botswana, Trinidad and Tobago, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Iceland, Barbados.

In the last 25 years about 14.4 percent of the world population lived in these countries. In the past this percentage was significantly higher, mostly around 20 percent. It reached almost 25 percent in 1913.

In 2018 advanced democracies had an average rank of 23 out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index. This strongly suggests that most of their citizens have been treated comparatively well by their own governments. The politicians and citizens of today’s advanced democracies often claim that the democratic systems and dynamic economies of their countries are rooted in a long tradition of humanism, enlightenment and respect for human rights. In fact, successive governments in these countries – both democratic and tyrannical – have killed more innocent people than all of the other countries combined since 1769. They killed roughly 133 million innocent people from 1769 to 2018. That amounts to about 54.7 percent of all victims in this time period.

Today’s advanced democracies, plus China, Russia and Turkey have either been perpetrators themselves or supported the perpetrators in all but two mass atrocities. The two exceptions are Shaka Zulu’s Reign and the War of the Triple Alliance. Around 0.25 percent of all victims were killed in these two mass killings. This astonishing fact fits my theoretical predictions. Mass prosperity and education are the most important root causes of both democracy and power. Today’s democracies have been among the most powerful nations throughout modern history. In fact, China, Russia and Turkey are the only great powers of the past 250 years, which haven’t become democracies yet. All three nations faced much greater threats from other great powers and were less developed throughout modern history than most democratic nations.

Chinese governments and insurgents have killed about 60 million innocent people since 1769. Russian forces have probably killed a little more than 20 million civilians in modern history. So China and Russia together have killed around one in three of all the victims in the 74 largest mass atrocities. Turkey has been responsible for roughly 7.5 million victims. More than 90 percent of all the innocent people who have been murdered in the 74 largest state crimes since 1769 have been killed either by countries which are democratic frontrunners today or by one of the three countries which have been great powers in modern history, but haven’t become advanced democracies yet. Almost all of these people were murdered by democratic or autocratic great powers, their allies or the governments of very populous nations like China.

Today’s advanced democracies have been great powers for 1155 years in total from 1769 to 2018. China, Russia and Turkey have been great powers for 470 years in this time period. That’s the main reason why democratic pioneers had much higher rates of state murder than most other nations. This logic has little to do with democracy. Mass prosperity and education made them great powers. Mass prosperity and education made them democracies.

The shocking fact that most of today’s democratic nations caused so much death and destruction in modern history is a powerful argument against prejudices against any nation, culture or religion. Today’s advanced democracies are not simply rooted in a culture of humanism, which goes back to the birth of modernity. Their nations have committed horrific crimes all over the world throughout modern times – both as democracies and dictatorships.

All of the advanced democracies are prosperous countries today. Justice demands that they use some of their resources to help the countries which have been their victims in the past.

My data also allows us to compare crimes committed by the governments or insurgents in Muslim-majority countries with the rest of the world. The results should come as a big surprise to people who associate Islam with mass atrocities. Governments of Muslim-majority countries and Muslim insurgent groups killed roughly 14.8 million innocent people from 1769 to 2018. This was around 6 percent of the total number of victims. On average Muslims made up about 18 percent of the world population from 1769 to 2018. The rate of state murder for Muslims was about 0.8 million per percentage point of the world population in this time period. The global rate of state murder for non-Muslims was roughly 2.8 million per percentage point of the world population – around 3.5 times higher! This is just a correlation. I believe that this finding has little to do with religion. Here too the most plausible explanation seems to be that differences in wealth and power had a stronger impact on state murder rates than any religious differences. We have no reason to believe that Islam is either more or less violent than any of the other world religions.

Power had a stronger impact on state murder rates than either regime type or religion.

Appendix: The 74 Largest Mass Killings, 1769-2018 – Data, Sources, Indicators, Bibliography, Potential Mass Killings for an Updated List of the Largest Mass Killings

This Appendix contains all the data and main sources I used in my analysis of the 74 largest mass killings from 1769 to 2018. Mass killings include civilian deaths in war, genocide, politicide, ethnic cleansing and state repression. They also include famines and epidemics, if they were the result of state crimes. These politically-induced famines and epidemics make up a big proportion of the mass killings by both democracies and dictatorships. My definition of mass killings is almost identical with Rudolph Rummel’s definition of “democide”, a general term he uses for all the different categories of political murder. The 74 mass killings make up all the episodes I could find, in which plausible estimates claim that more than 150000 people were killed – combatants and civilians.

The appendix also explains the definitions and indicators I used to define advanced democracies and nondemocracies.

I would welcome any study which tries to reproduce or question the results or methods of my analysis using the same or different numbers and sources. Please contact me, if you consider using this data in a study or if you have further questions.

Main Sources

I used four sources as guides and reference points in this analysis. All other sources are named in the short texts for the specific crimes.

Historian Matthew White collects and discusses expert estimates on the largest mass atrocities in human history. His data on the “One Hundred Deadliest Multicides” can be found in his magisterial book: “Atrocities – The 100 Deadliest Episodes in Human History”. The book contains a ranking of the top 100. His website “Necrometrics” contains more data on mass killings. I have often used both the book and the website.

Political scientist Rudolph Rummel from the University of Hawaii has also analyzed huge amounts of data on the largest state crimes in several books. I have often used his website “Power Kills” in my analysis. His estimates tend to be very high. In many cases I find them too high. I have often used them as highest plausible estimates.

For the post-1945 mass killings I often used estimates from the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” by researchers from the World Peace Foundation at Tafts University. Their research is very rigorous. They use a high standard of proof, so their estimates tend to be low. I have often used them as lowest plausible estimates.

I always used Wikipedia as another guide for finding expert estimates. But I have only quoted Wikipedia if the authors used scientific sources.

Regime Type Indicators and Definitions

Any comparison of democracies and dictatorships requires clear definitions. I used three different definitions and two indicators of what I call “advanced democracies”. All three definitions and indicators are meant to distinguish the most democratic countries in a specific age from all countries which were less democratic or not democratic at all. Simply put: I compare the democratic frontrunners to the rest. My choice of definitions and indicators is arbitrary. But I did choose them carefully.

The countries I coded as advanced democracies are the ones that most historians and policy experts view as democratic pioneers of the particular age. Only a few of the classifications are controversial. I chose three different definitions and two indicators, because the standard for what we consider a democratic society has increased over time.

I found no ranking of democracies for the 18th century. So I decided to analyze credible historical sources to identify the most democratic societies for the fifty years from 1769 to 1818. I only ranked Britain and the US since 1769 as advanced democracies for this time period. I also ranked France as an advanced democracy from 1791 to 1799. This choice is based on the analysis of democratic developments during the French revolution in Malcolm Crook’s 1996 book: “Elections in the French Revolution – An Apprenticeship in Democracy, 1789-1799”.

I use a definition with low standards for democracy from 1819 to 1918, which does not even require women’s suffrage. Much higher standards for democracy reduce the number of democracies for much of the time period to zero. I have used the Polity IV-dataset for this time period. I have classified “Democracies” and “Open Anocracies” in this dataset as advanced democracies. Roughly 13.1 percent of the world’s population lived in democracies and open anocracies between 1819 and 1918. I used data from “Our World in Data” to calculate this number. Their website now uses other democracy indicators. But the Polity IV-based graph and data can still be found here:

Our World in Data, “World citizens living under different political regimes”: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-pop-by-political-regime?country=~OWID_WRL

The website “Gapminder” also uses Polity IV for its “Democracy score” under “Society” in its interactive statistical toolkit. Countries receiving Polity scores of 1-5 are classified as open anocracies, countries with higher scores as democracies.

My much higher standard for the time after 1918 requires a country to be a liberal and effective democracy. I have used the V-Dem-dataset for this time period. I have classified countries as advanced democracies, if they scored above 8.3 on the V-Dem-Rule of Law Index and above 0.45 on the V-Dem-Liberal Democracy Index for 3 out of 5 years. Political scientist Christian Welzel and his colleagues have shown in several studies that this combination of V-Dem-indicators is an excellent way to measure what they call “effective democracy”. Roughly 16.5 percent of the world’s population was living in pioneering democracies between 1919 and 2018. The V-Dem-Website has interactive graphic tools, which contain all the relevant data for this time period.

Advanced Democracies from 1919 to 2018 V-Dem-Rule of Law Index above 8.3 and V-Dem-Liberal Democracy Index above 0.45 for 3 out of 5 years

Countries with fewer than 50000 citizens were ignored.

Australia: since 1919

Austria: 1921-1932, since 1945

Barbados: since 1960

Belgium: 1921-1939, since 1947

Bhutan: since 2013

Botswana: since 1966

Brazil: 2013-2016

Canada: since 1921

Cape Verde: since 1991

Chile: 1964-1972, since 1991

Costa Rica: since 1950

Cyprus: since 1975

Czech Republic: since 1990

Denmark: 1919-1943, since 1946

Estonia: since 1993

Finland: since 1919

France: 1919–1939, since 1947

Germany: 1920-1932, since 1949

Greece: 2013–2015

Hungary: since 1990

Iceland: since 1919

Ireland: since 1924

Israel: since 1964

Italy: since 1956

Jamaica: since 1990

Japan: since 1952

Latvia: since 1990

Lithuania: since 1990

Luxembourg: 1920–1939, since 1946

Namibia: since 1991

Netherlands: 1919-1939, since 1946

New Zealand: since 1919

Norway: 1919-1939, since 1946

Poland: 1920-1925, since 1990

Portugal: since 1976

Slovakia: since 1999

Slovenia: since 1991

South Africa: 2003-2008

South Korea: since 1989

Spain: since 1979

Sri Lanka: 1948-1969

Sweden: since 1920

Switzerland: since 1919

Taiwan: since 2000

Trinidad and Tobago: since 1962

Tunisia: since 2014

UK: since 1919

Uruguay: 1923-1932, 1939-1969, since 1985

USA: since 1919

Population Numbers

Potential Mass Atrocities for an Updated List of Mass Killings

The mass killings in the following list deserve to be considered for an updated and expanded list of the largest mass killings. The list distinguishes between them by the regime types of the perpetrator nations.

Bibliography

Anderson, Margaret: “Practicing Democracy: Elections and Political Culture in Imperial Germany”, Princeton University Press, Princeton 2000

Bass; Gary J.: “The Blood Telegram – Nixon, Kissinger and a Forgotten Genocide”, Vintage, 2014

Benton, Gregor/ Lin Chun: “Was Mao Really a Monster? The Academic Response to Chang and Halliday’s ‘Mao: The Unknown Story’”, Routledge, New York 2010

Black, Edwin: “Nazi Nexus: America’s Corporate Connections to Hitler’s Holocaust”, Dialog Press, Washington D.C. 2009

Bukerjee, Madhusree: “Churchill’s Secret War: The British Empire and the Ravaging of India During World War II”, Basic Books, New York 2010

Cameron, Catherine M./ Kelton, Paul/ Swedlund, Atlan C.: “Beyond Germs – Native Depopulation in North America”, University of Arizona, 2015

Campbell Bartoletti, Susan: “Black Potatoes”, HMH Books for Young Readers, 2005

Checchi, Francesco et al.: “Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in South Sudan, December 2013-April 2018”, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 2018

Chhun, Maura Elizabeth: “Death and Disorder – The 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic in British India”, University of Colorado, Boulder 2015

Cumings, Bruce: “The Korean War – A History”, Modern Library, New York 2010

Cummings, Lindsey: “Economic Warfare and the Evolution of the Allied Blockade of the Eastern Mediterranean: Augsut 1914 – April 1917”, thesis, Georgetown University, Washington DC 2015

Crook, Malcolm: “Elections in the French Revolution – An Apprenticeship in Democracy, 1789-1799”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1996

Dalrymple, William: “The Anarchy – The Relentless Rise of the East India Company”, Bloomsbury, London 2019

Davis, Mike: “Late Victorian Holocausts – El Nino Famines and The Making of the Third World”, Verson, London and New York 2017

Dikötter, Frank: “Mao’s Great Famine: The History of China’s Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958-1962”, Walker & Co., New York 2010

Gunn, Geoffrey: “The Great Vietnamese Famine of 1944-45 Revisited”, Asia-Pacific Journal, January 2011

Hochschild, Adam: “King Leopold’s Ghost – A Story of Greed, Terror and Heroism in Colonial Africa”, Pan Books, London 2006

Hodong Kim: “Holy War in China – The Muslim Rebellion and State in Chinese Central Asia, 1864-1877”, Stanford University Press, Stanford 2004

Jung Chang/ Halliday, Jon: “Mao – The Unknown Story”, Vintage Books, London 2006

Kelly, John: “The Graves Are Walking”, Faber and Faber, 2012

Laband, John: “The Eight Zulu Kings – From Shaka to Goodwill Zwelithini” Jonathan Ball, Johannesburg and Cape Town 2018

Maharatna, Arup: “The Demography of Famines – An Indian Historical Perspective”, OUP India 1996

Majd, Mohammad Gholi: “Iran Under Allied Occupation in World War II: The Bridge to Victory & a Land of Famine”, University Press of America 2016

Majd, Mohammad Gholi: “The Great Famine and Genocide in Iran 1917-1919”, Second Edition, University Press of America 2013

Mawdsley, Evan: “The Russian Civil War”, Birlinn, Edinburgh 2017

Misra, Amaresh: “War of Civilisations – India AD 1857 – The Road to Delhi and The Long Revolution”, 2 Volumes, Rupa, 2008

Ó Gráda, Cormac: “Eating People is Wrong – and Other Essays on Famine, its Past and its Future”, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford 2015

Ó Gráda, Cormac: “Making Famine History”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLV, March 2007, pp. 5-38

Paice, Edward: “Tip & Run – The Untold Tragedy of the Great War in Africa”, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, London 2007

Parthasarathi, Prasannan: “Why Europe Grew Rich and Asia did not – Global Economic Divergence, 1600-1850”, Cambridge University Press 2012

Platt, Stephen R.: “Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom – China, the West and the Epic Story of the Taiping Civil War”, Vintage Books, New York 2012

Rummel, Rudolph: “Democide: Nazi Genocide and Mass Murder”, Routledge 2020

Salt, Jeremy: “The Last Ottoman Wars – The Human Cost, 1877-1923”, The University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City 2019

Sato, Shigeru: “Indonesia 1939-1942: Prelude to the Japanese Occupation”, Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, 37 (2), p. 225-248, National University of Singapore 2006

Segal, Ronald: “Islam’s Black Slaves – The Other Black Diaspora”, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York 2002

Serels, Steven: “The Impoverishment of the African Red Sea Littoral, 1640-1945”, Palgrave Series in Indian Ocean World Studies, Palgrave MacMillan 2018

Serels, Steven: “Starvation and the State: Famine, Slavery, and Power in Sudan, 1883-1956”, Palgrave Series in Indian Ocean World Studies, Palgrave MacMillan 2013

Shackelford, Elizabeth: “The Dissent Channel – American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age”, Public Affairs, New York 2020

Sullivan, Dylan/ Hickel, Jason: “Capitalism and extreme poverty: A global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century”, World Development 161, 2023, available online

Tharoor, Shashi: “Inglorious Empire – What the British Did to India”, Penguin Books 2017

Tumbe, Chinmay: “The Age of Pandemics 1817-1920 – How They Shaped India and the World”, HarperCollins Publishers India, Noida 2020

The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum: “Documenting Numbers of Victims of the Holocaust and Nazi Persecutions”, Holocaust Encyclopedia, online

Vallishayee, Rijuta/ Tessa, Delgo: “Rice and Revolution – The Great Famine of Vietnam During the Second World War, 1944-1945”, Pacific Atrocities Education, San Francisco 2021

Walder, Andrew G.: “China under Mao – A Revolution Derailed”, Harvard University Press, Cambridge and London 2015

Wallis, Andrew: “Silent Accomplice – The Untold Story of France’s Role in Rwandan Genocide”, I.B.Tauris, London 2006

White, Matthew: “Atrocities – 100 Deadliest Episodes in Human History”, W.W. Norton & Company, New York and London 2012

Williamson, Jeffrey G.: “Trade and Poverty – When the Third World Fell Behind”, MIT Press

The 74 Largest Mass Killings, 1769-2018

Note to the Reader: You will find 74 blog posts – one for every single mass killing – on the website. If you would like to discuss any specific mass killing, I ask you do it underneath the specific post.

British Colonial Rule in India

Advanced Democracies (AD) – Most Plausible Estimate (MPE): 57.2

There are no estimates for the total number of Indians killed by British Colonial Rule. But research has convincingly shown that British colonialism was partly or fully responsible for a number of major famines and pandemics in British India. Here we are concerned with politically-induced famine deaths and killings since 1769. The numbers for the Bengal famine of 1943 are included in the WWII-estimates.

In his magisterial book “Late Victorian Holocausts – El Nino Famines and The Making of the Third World” historian Mike Davis analyses the devastating effects of British colonial policies in India from the second half of the 19^th century until independence. He convincingly shows that many major famines in British India were to a large degree the result of brutal and exploitative colonial policies. Demographer Arup Maharatna analyses the same major famines as Davis in his book: “The Demography of Indian Famines – A Historical Perspective”.

In his book Davis cites three studies – including Maharatna – for the famine from 1876 to 1879, which range from 6.1 million to 10.3 million famine victims. The average of the three studies is 8.2 million.

Davis also cites three studies – including Maharatna – for the famines of 1896-1902, which range from 6.1 to 19 million victims. 19 million is the result of a Lancet-study. The number has been accepted as the best estimate by four major historians, as Davis points out. Maharatna looks at two large famines in this time period. He estimates that 5.6 to 9.6 million Indians perished in these two famines. But Maharatna emphasizes that he uses the death rates of the five years prior to every famine as a baseline for his calculations. Death rates in this time period remained very high between and after major famines. This may explain why the Lancet study comes up with a much higher number for the whole time period. I choose 12 million as the most plausible estimate.

Maharatna estimates that 2.1 to 3.2 million Indians died in the famine of 1907-1908. I consider 2.6 million to be the most plausible estimate.

A Wikipedia entry called “Timeline of major famines in India under British rule” lists more famines. Up to 10 million Indians died in the Great Bengal famine from 1769 to 1770. In his book “The Anarchy” William Dalrymple explains in great detail why ruthless exploitation and criminal neglect by the East India Company was largely to blame for the high death toll. Plausible estimates range from 1.6 to 9 million famine victims as a result of criminal policies. I choose 4 million as the most plausible estimate.

Wikipedia also lists the Chalisa famine from 1783 to 1784 and the Madras famine in South India from 1782 to 1783. Up to 11 million people perished in these two famines. British culpability seems less clear to me than in other large famines. Plausible estimates for the number of people who died because of criminal policies by the East India Company range from 1.5 to 6 million. I choose 3 million as the most plausible estimate.

Up to 11 million people died in the Doji Bara famine or Skull famine from 1791 to 1792. This estimate may be too high. British culpability is less clear than in most other famines. Plausible estimates for the number of people, who died because of criminal policies by the East India Company range from 1.6 to 6.5 million. I choose 3.5 million as the most plausible estimate.

0.8 million Indians died in the Agra famine from 1837 to 1838. 2 million perished in the Upper Doab famine from 1860 to 1861. Estimates for the Orissa famine of 1865 to 1867 range from 4 to 5 million victims. I could not find any solid evidence to back up the estimates for these three famines. Plausible estimates for the total number of victims range from 4.3 to 7.8 million victims. I choose 5.8 million as the most plausible estimate.

1.5 million died in the Rajputana famine from 1868 to 1870. British culpability is less clear than in most other famines of the time. I blame British rule for anywhere between 0.3 and 1 million victims. I choose 0.6 million as the most plausible estimate.

The number of Indians executed or massacred by the British imperial forces is unknown. But there were numerous brutal military campaigns during British rule. Here I will only include the large number of killings during India’s First War of Independence, which the British usually call the Mutiny or Rebellion of 1857. All sides in this war committed acts of atrocities. 6000 Europeans were killed. 0.8 million is a very conservative estimate for the number of Indian soldiers and civilians who lost their lives. Indian writer Amaresh Misra tries to show in his controversial book: “War of Civilisations: India AD 1857” that Britain killed 10 million Indians in ten years in reaction to the uprising. This estimate is based on calculations of population losses. Most historians believe that this estimate is too high. Plausible estimates range from 0.8 to 10 million. I take 3 million as the most reasonable estimate. These estimates do not include any other wars or massacres in British India.

The Indian economist Chinmay Tumbe has written an important book called: “The Age of Pandemics 1817-1920 – How They Shaped India and the World”.

Tumbe estimates that “cholera killed around 50 million people worldwide between 1817-1920”. Up to 40 million died on the Indian subcontinent: around 30-31 million died because of Cholera’s endemicity in India and another 8-10 million in cholera pandemics. Tumbe emphasizes that “cholera death rates from were increasing in India in the late 19^th century, even as they were receding in most parts of the world”. In 19^th century England cholera claimed close to 0.2 million lives.

Tumbe claims that 13 million people perished in plague pandemics between 1894 and 1920, 12 million of which on the Indian subcontinent. He writes: “The plague rarely troubled Europeans in general or even Indians in the army, in regions otherwise susceptible to outbreaks, presumably because of better dwelling structures”. He documents plague-related death rates in Bombay between 1897 and 1900 for British India: 2 per 1000 for Europeans, around 10 per 1000 for Parsis, Jews and Eurasians, 15 per 1000 among Hindu ‘Brahmans’ and 20 per 1000 for ‘other Hindu castes’. The fact that most Indians died at a 10 times higher rate than their European overlords suggests that British colonial rule had enormous responsibility for the 12 million victims of plague pandemics on the subcontinent. Europe reported only around 1000 victims during this plague pandemic.

According to Tumbe the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1920 killed over 40 million people around the world and “close to or upwards of 20 million” on the Indian subcontinent, 6.4 percent of its population at the time. He quotes a report on death rates in Bombay City: “Europeans and Parsis had the lowest rates of death related to influenza (about 1 percent of their populations), the death rates were more than double among Muslims and ‘Caste Hindus’ and more than six times as high among ‘Low Caste Hindus’”. In the Punjab the sanitation board noted that the “case mortality in Europeans was well under 5 percent, in Indians of the better class and those provided with qualified medical aid about 6 percent, in the poorer classes anything from 50 percent onwards”. The case fatality ratio in the Indian army was 4 percent for Europeans, but 11 percent for natives. Indian politicians and newspapers voiced harsh criticism of colonial neglect of Indian health care during the pandemic and made desperate pleas for greater help. Tumbe writes about the response: “Not only did the pleas have little effect, in later years the abysmally low spending on public health care was further cut back amid efforts to reduce government expenditures”.

To be clear: According to Tumbe’s research over 70 million Indians died from cholera, plague and influenza alone under British rule. Even though it is clear that colonial rule bears a lot of responsibility for this horrific death toll, it would be wrong to blame British rule for all of the victims. In this analysis I blame the colonizers for a much lower number of victims. I do so for the following reasons:

– Tumbe shows that geographical conditions in India also played an important role. However, his comparisons of death rates for Europeans in India and Natives does suggest a limited role for geography, since they all shared the same natural environment.

– Tumbe also shows that British help was totally inadequate. But there were some improvements in some areas over time.

– Both Tumbe and Maharatna document in great detail that malnutrition, poverty, illiteracy and abysmal sanitary conditions explain the high death rates for cholera, plague and influenza. Maharatna shows that many victims of the great famines died from cholera and plague. So we need to be very careful when adding the cholera and plague numbers to famine numbers in order to avoid double counting. Even though, Maharatna documents that the number one cause of death during most of the famines was malaria. Starvation and other diseases also contributed to the high death tolls. Tumbe discusses the devastating cholera epidemic of 1857-1858 and documents high death rates from plague for many years after the horrific famine era, which ended in 1902. For all of these cholera and plague deaths we need to be much less concerned about double counting.

– In this analysis I only count victims of famines or epidemics, if the government’s responsibility is very clear and direct.

For all of these reasons I believe it is fair to say that British colonial rule caused at least 5 million out of roughly 50 million total deaths from cholera and plague on the subcontinent. I choose 9 million as the most plausible estimate.

The impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918 on India is an underestimated issue. It killed less than 0.7 percent of the British population, but 5 percent of the Indian population. Roughly 13.9 million Indians died in the British controlled territories. Most of this difference probably needs to be explained by poverty, lack of health care and sanitation in the Raj. The much lower death rate in Britain compared to British India shows what the British authorities were capable of. Maura Elizabeth Chhun from Metropolitan State University summarizes the results of her PhD from 2015 called “Death and Disorder – The 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic in British India” in the following way: “The 1918-1919 Influenza pandemic claimed millions of lives around the world, including some 12-14 million in India. The British colonial government found itself facing a previously unimaginable public health crisis while also fighting the First World War and staring down an approaching famine. Without an effective cure for the flu and with only an overstretched and understaffed bureaucracy to fight it, the British government managed only small, largely ineffectual steps to mitigate the flu’s immense death toll. Issues of power, racism, and colonial control intersected with structural deficiencies and a well founded, deep seated distrust of government intervention on the part of the Indian people during the pandemic. In the aftermath many people questioned the government’s response, and the flu began to be used in anticolonialist rhetoric as an indictment of the British presence”. In her article for The Conversation from April 2020 called: “1918 flu pandemic killed 12 million Indians, and British overlords’ indifference strengthened the anti-colonial movement” she writes that Europeans in British India had a death rate of roughly 0.8 percent, but Hindus and Muslims had death rates that ranged from 1.8 to 6.2 percent.

If we assume that 40 percent of the excess mortality in India was caused by British politics, the remaining increase would still have been more than four times higher than in Britain. This makes it a reasonable assumption. It means that British colonial policies were responsible for roughly 5.5 million excess deaths from influenza in India. Plausible estimates range from 4 to 10 million excess deaths. We do not have to worry about double counting of famine and influenza victims, because we didn’t count any famine deaths for 1918-1920.

Plausible estimates for the number of victims of British rule in India range from 33.4 to 100 million and more. I consider 57.2 million victims of British rule in India to be the most reasonable estimate.

This analysis is only concerned with British culpability for clearly identifiable famines and epidemics. It does not include excess mortality from British rule in “normal” times. I have not included the excess mortality in “normal” times for any of the other mass atrocities either. But I do believe that British rule in India lead to millions of excess deaths which are not counted in this analysis. Famines and epidemics were only the most extreme and easily identifiable manifestations of British misrule. I only point this out here, because I believe that my estimate of over 50 million victims of British colonialism on the subcontinent is conservative. Most authors use lower numbers because their analysis misses many famines and epidemics. For example, Matthew White blames Britain for 26.6 million famine deaths, not including the Bengal famine of World War II. But his analysis is limited to the famine of 1769-1770 and the famines between 1876 and 1900, because Mike Davis’ book is his main source.

Shashi Tharoor’s powerful book “Inglorious Empire – What the British did to India” contains evidence for British colonialism’s long-term negative impact on health, education and living standards on the Indian subcontinent. Economist Jeffrey G. Williamson’s fact-filled book “Trade and Poverty – When the Third World Fell Behind” contains a chapter on India, in which he convincingly shows that British misrule in India was one of the main causes for a severe de-industrialization process between 1760 and 1913. In his pioneering book “Why Europe Grew Rich and Asia did not” historian Prasannan Parthasarathi documents in great detail how British policies led to a stark decline of manufacturing, technological knowledge, education and government welfare on the Indian subcontinent.

Dylan Sullivan and Jason Hickel wrote a study called “Capitalism and extreme poverty: A global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century”, in which they calculate the number of excess deaths for British India between 1891 and 1920. They conclude: “If we estimate excess mortality from 1891 to 1920, with the average death rate of the 1880s as normal mortality, we find some 50 million people lost their lives under the aegis of British capitalism. But this estimate must be considered conservative. India’s 1880s death rate was already very high by international standards”. Based on a lower normal mortality rate, which is based on speculative assumptions, the authors get to much higher numbers. All available data suggests that 100 years of British conquest, warfare and deindustrialisation had already increased the mortality rate on the Indian subcontinent by 1880, perhaps dramatically so. That’s why I agree that 50 million excess deaths is a conservative estimate for the 30 years of colonial rule from 1891 to 1920. This number also suggests that my own estimate of roughly 60 million victims of British colonial rule on the subcontinent is reasonable.

World War II

Advanced Democracies (AD), Most Plausible Estimate (MPE): 4.5

Nondemocracies (ND), Most Plausible Estimate (MPE) (without expulsion of Germans) : 45

Matthew White provides an overview of the number of innocent people killed in WWII by perpetrator nation. It is a useful starting point for any discussion on these numbers. He considers 46 million civilian deaths plus 4.2 million prisoners of war to be the most reasonable estimates. He estimates that up to 4 million civilians were killed by Britain and the US. This number includes the victims of terror bombing in Germany and Japan and the Bengal Famine, for which British policies were largely responsible. White discusses additional estimates for World War II on his website “necrometrics”.

This suggests that roughly 4 million innocent people were killed by advanced democracies during World War II, while roughly 46 million innocent people were killed by nondemocracies. According to White the Nazi regime killed about 24 million and Imperial Japan about 11 million civilians during WWII. The United States Holocaust Memorial presents basic data in an article called “Documenting Numbers of Victims of the Holocaust and Nazi Persecutions” in their online Holocaust Encyclopedia, in which they estimate that the Nazis killed roughly 17-18 million civilians. They emphasize that this is a very conservative estimate. Rudolph Rummel concludes in his book: “Democide: Nazi Genocide and Mass Murder” that “the Nazis murdered from 15,003,000 to 31,595,000 people” – “they likely annihilated 20,946,000 human beings”.

According to the Wikipedia-article “World War II casualties” roughly 70 to 85 million people were killed in WWII, 50 to 56 million soldiers and civilians killed directly and 19 to 28 million killed by famine and disease. Civilian deaths totaled 50 to 55 million, plus 5 million prisoners of war.

The main table in the Wikipedia-article called “Total deaths by country” and the footnotes allow a closer look at some important details. They list about 23.8 to 33.6 million “civilian deaths due to military activity and crimes against humanity”. These numbers include civilian deaths due to the expulsion of Germans after the war. Like White I will count these deaths as a separate crime. So I subtract the number of 0.5 to 2 million civilian deaths from the total, which leaves us with around 23.3 to 31.6 million.

According to the footnotes to the Wikipedia-article “World War II casualties”, the Wikipedia-article “Allied war crimes during World War II” and White’s website a total of 0.9 to 1.6 million German, Austrian and Japanese civilians and prisoners of war were killed by the US, Britain and French liberation forces, mostly through terror bombing with conventional and nuclear weapons. According to these articles and additional Wikipedia-articles on allied bombing roughly 0.14 to 0.15 million civilians were killed by advanced democracies in France, Italy, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Romania and Thailand. According to the Wikipedia-article: “List of maritime disasters in World War II” roughly 0.02 to 0.03 million civilians and prisoners of war were killed by the Western allies in unrestricted maritime warfare. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians directly killed by advanced democracies range from 1.05 to 1.75 million victims.

Once we subtract the numbers for civilians which were directly killed by advanced democracies from the total numbers – using only the Wikipedia-article “World War II casualties” -, we arrive at roughly 21.6 million to 30.5 million “civilian deaths due to military activity and crimes against humanity” by nondemocracies. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians which were directly killed by nondemocracies range from roughly 22 to 29 million civilians.

19 to 28 million civilians died in war-related famines and diseases. Wikipedia allows us to take a closer look. How many of the 8 to 9 million Soviet citizens who died from famine and disease should be counted as victims of German or Soviet democide? Up to one million were killed in the Siege of Leningrad. For the rest it is very hard to say. A footnote in the Wikipedia-article explains: “6.6 to 7.1 million deaths due to famine and disease including 4.1 million in German occupied USSR and 2.5 – 3.2 million deaths in area not occupied by Germany.” Many, if not most of the famine victims in the areas not occupied by Germany probably died as an unintended consequence of war destruction. I will count 4.5 to 8.9 million as victims of democide.

Equally uncertain is how many of the 5 to 10 million Chinese victims of famine and disease were victims of democide. I will count 3 to 9.6 million.

According to the Wikipedia-article “Vietnamese famine of 1945” 0.4 to 2 million people perished in the Great Vietnamese Famine of 1944 to 1945. It identifies natural disasters, Japanese rule and – to a much lesser extent – French rule before and during the war as its root causes. Geoffrey Gunn’s article called “The Great Vietnamese Famine of 1944-45 Revisited” in the Asia-Pacific Journal of January 2011 explains why most of these famine deaths were due to Japanese policies, but some were the result of French policies and indiscriminate bombing by the US. Rijuta Vallishayee and Tessa Delgo have written a book on the famine called “Rice and Revolution”, in which they show that the policies of Japan and Vichy France were the immediate and most important causes of the famine. But they also discuss how decades of French colonialism before the war laid the groundwork for famine conditions. I blame Japan and Vichy France for 0.4 to 1.8 million famine victims. Democratic France before the war and the US were responsible for 0.1 to 0.2 million victims.

Estimates for the number of famine victims under Japanese rule in Indonesia range from 2.4 to 4 million. Shigeru Sato’s study “Indonesia 1939-1942: Prelude to the Japanese Occupation” shows that severe war disruptions, bad weather conditions and Dutch colonial rule before the Japanese occupation were major contributing factors to the high number of victims from famine, malnutrition and disease. The Dutch even destroyed rice mills as a scorched earth tactic. But Sato does assign much more blame to Japanese rule. I will count 1.6 to 3.7 million famine victims of Japanese rule and 0.03 to 0.1 million victims of Dutch rule.

The Wikipedia-article for the “Bengal famine of 1943” cites estimates which range from 2.1 to 3.8 million deaths in Bengal alone. Arup Maharatna’s book “The Demography of Indian Famines” contains an in-depth discussion of the best estimates for the number of victims in his chapter on the Bengal famine of 1943. He concludes: “It seems that the volume of excess mortality during the 1943-44 Bengal famine was much closer to 2 million deaths than to 3 million”. Plausible estimates range from 2.1 to 3 million deaths. Madhusree Bukerjee convincingly shows in his fact-filled book “Churchill’s Secret War: The British Empire and the Ravaging of India during World War II” that British colonial rule was responsible for these excess deaths.

36,000-50,000 people in Rwanda-Urundi died in a famine, for which the Belgian colonial authorities were partially responsible. The colony was ruled by the Belgian government in exile, which I ranked as an advanced democracy.

Wikipedia also claims 0.3 to 0.6 million famine victims in Greece, 16,000 in the Netherlands and up to 0.34 million in the Philippines. The occupying nondemocratic powers were at least partially responsible for these famines. An Allied blockade worsened the famine in Greece. But I ignore this fact here. The Axis occupiers were clearly the main culprits.

Neither the Wikipedia-article nor White discuss the famine in Iran during World War II. In his magisterial book: “Iran Under Allied Occupation in World War II: The Bridge to Victory & a Land of Famine” economic historian Mohammad Gholi Majd claims that 3 to 4 million Iranians died in a famine and typhus epidemic for which the Anglo-Soviet invasion and occupation of the country were mostly responsible. It seems that Gholi’s book is the only in-depth study of this largely forgotten crime. Therefore I hesitate to accept his claims. But I do believe that plausible estimates for the numbers of famine victims which were killed by British and Soviet forces range from 0.3 to 0.4 million each.

Using these numbers I estimate that 2.55 to 3.75 million people were killed in famine crimes by advanced democracies. 10.5 to 25.4 million were killed in famine crimes by nondemocracies. We need to add these numbers to the civilians killed directly.

3.6 to 5.5 million civilians were killed by democratic frontrunners during World War II. I consider 4.5 million to be the most reasonable estimate.

32.5 to 54.4 million civilians were killed by nondemocracies. I consider 45 million to be the most reasonable estimate.

Advanced democracies killed about 9 percent of innocent victims. According to my analysis around 10.5 percent of the world’s population lived in advanced democracies during WWII. So nondemocracies were probably slightly overrepresented in WWII-atrocities. But we cannot even be sure about that. Democratic pioneers may even have killed at a higher rate in relation to their population sizes than nondemocracies in WWII. But it is unlikely.

It is important to remember that the Nazis won the last free and fair elections before they established a dictatorship in Germany. Of course I have counted Hitler’s regime as a dictatorship. But his election victories are a warning that even the worst of the worst can rise in a democratic system.

Most historians are convinced that the brutal conditions of the Versailles Treaty were one of the main reasons and perhaps the number one reason for Hitler’s rise to power. Nevertheless, I do not assign any blame for the Nazi atrocities to Western powers in this analysis.

Edwin Black convincingly shows in his fact-filled book called “Nazi Nexus: America’s Corporate Connections to Hitler’s Holocaust” that IBM, General Motors, Ford and other US companies supported the Nazi regime, its war machine and the Holocaust with up-to-date military vehicles, arms, logistics, bureaucratic infrastructure and propaganda. His evidence strongly suggests that the Nazis would not have been able to murder as many people as they did without the highly significant partnerships with these corporations. Nevertheless, I do not assign any of the blame for the Nazi atrocities to Western companies in this analysis.

We should also remember that the US and Britain supported Stalin’s regime. Even if we accept the necessity of this alliance, it gives them some responsibility for Soviet atrocities during World War II. Even more so, because they intentionally and successfully let the Red Army do most of the fighting. If the US and Britain would have had to bring the greatest sacrifice in the war, they surely would have killed more innocent civilians in the war. Matthew White writes in his book “Atrocities”: “The Soviets beat the Germans fair and square. They produced 96 percent of their own munitions and 66 percent of their own vehicles, while inflicting 80 percent of all German fatalities in the war. They had already turned the tide at Stalingrad at a time when Britain was stalemated and America was still mobilizing. It was a close call, and Western assistance tipped the balance, but the West needed Stalin more than Stalin needed the West. Without the Soviets, the Western allies would have had to face several million more Germans all by themselves”. So one could argue that we should put some of the blame of the atrocities committed by Soviet soldiers during the war on the US and Britain. I didn’t do this here. The Western Allies certainly bear a lot of responsibility for the fate of millions of Soviet civilians and prisoners of war which they forcefully repatriated to Stalin’s regime.

Finally, we should remember that Britain and France used many soldiers from their colonies as cannon fodder by sending them to the most dangerous frontlines. Many of these soldiers were promised independence for their countries after the war. But this promise was broken. One could argue that we should consider some of those who fell as victims of British and French colonial rule. I didn’t do this here either.

Mao Zedong

ND – MPE (without Chinese Civil War and WWII): 40

Matthew White provides a comprehensive overview of expert estimates on the the number of people killed by Mao Zedong’s communist regime in China. He cites plausible estimates that range from 30 to 65 million victims of Mao’s regime. He explains his view that 40 million is the most plausible estimate. This number includes 30 million famine victims. It does not include the victims of Mao’s communist forces before they took power in 1949. These victims are included in the numbers for World War II and the Chinese Civil War.

In his fact-filled and magisterial book “China under Mao” China expert Andrew G. Walder estimates that 1 to 2 million people were killed during the mass killings of the early 1950’s and 1.1 to 1.6 million during the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1971. He also discusses smaller episodes of mass killings, in which hundreds of thousands were killed. He considers 30 million famine victims to be the most plausible estimate.

But famine expert Cormac Ó Gráda convincingly shows in his book “Eating People is Wrong – and Other Essays on Famine, its Past and its Future” that the estimate of 30 million famine deaths during China’s Great Leap Forward is probably too high. He also discusses his view that Frank Dikötter’s estimate of 45 million famine victims in the book “Mao’s Great Famine” is almost certainly much too high. In his study “Making Famine History” Ó Gráda explains that plausible estimates range from 15 million – his own calculation – to 23 million victims. He claims that there is no scientific basis for much higher numbers. Ó Gráda also presents evidence that bad weather shocks explain a significant proportion and potentially half or more of all excess deaths.

Jung Chang and Jon Halliday estimate in their controversial book “Mao: The Unknown Story” that Mao was responsible for “well over 70 million deaths in peace time”. China experts Gregor Benton and Lin Chun have edited a book called “Was Mao Really a Monster?”, which contains over a dozen reviews of Chang and Halliday’s book. Most of the reviews, which were written by historians and experts, are highly critical of the book and point out numerous mistakes, distortions and unproven claims. Jin Xiaoding’s review “A critique of Jung Chang
and Jon Halliday, Mao: The Unknown Story” convincingly shows that the book’s estimates for the number of people who were directly killed or died from famine and disease are almost certainly too high.

Plausible estimates for the victims of the Maoist regime in China range from 25 to 60 million. I choose 40 million as the most plausible estimate.

The Taiping War

AD – MPE: 0.7

ND – MPE: 14

According to White most experts estimate that 20 million people died during the Taiping Wars from 1850 to 1864. He explains that a few sources claim that up to 30 million people were killed, but he found no evidence for this higher number. So he considers 20 million to be the most plausible estimate. This number includes soldiers, civilians and deaths from famine and disease. We have no estimates of how many of the victims were civilians or people killed by politically-induced famines. We do know that all war parties besieged cities and burned fields. It also isn’t clear how many people were killed by government forces, the Taiping rebels or Western imperial powers.

In his book: “Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom – China, the West and the Epic Story of the Taiping Civil War” historian Stephen R. Platt takes a close look at major crimes committed by all domestic and foreign parties involved in the Taiping War. He shows that military interventions by Western imperial powers worsened the war and economic hardship. Britain in particular played a significant role in the conflict. Together with France they fought the Second Opium War – or Arrow War – against the Qing government during its war with the Taiping rebels. The attacks culminated in the capture of Beijing, the flight of the emperor and the looting of the Summer Palaces. Later in the conflict the British and the French reversed their policy and intervened on the side of the Qing forces against the Taiping rebels. Platt shows that the foreign forces and arms shipments had a decisive impact on the war’s outcome. He documents massacres and brutal sieges by the Qing Imperial Army, the Taiping armies and foreign troops. He also shows that many people died from epidemics and famines which were unintended outcomes of the wars.

It is highly uncertain how many people were actually killed in these wars. Plausible estimates range from 10 to 19 million victims of democide by nondemocratic forces. I choose 14 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of victims of democide by advanced democracies range from 0.3 to 1.3 million . I choose 0.7 as the most plausible estimate.

Stalin

ND – MPE (without WWII): 11

Matthew White cites expert estimates on the number of people killed by Stalin’s communist regime which range from 15 to 40 million. But there seems to be little evidence for the highest numbers. White thinks that 20 million is the most plausible estimate.

The Wikipedia-article “Excess mortality in the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin” explains that the opening of Soviet Archives allowed in-depth scientific estimates of higher quality. All of these latest estimates tend to be much lower than 20 million. They range from 9 to 13 million. But some historians hold on to high numbers which are based on rough calculations of population loss.

These numbers include the World War II period. We have already counted them in the WWII-numbers. So we need to subtract them from the totals. White included 4 million victims of the Stalinist regime during WWII. This leaves us with plausible estimates which range from 5 to 17 million victims of Stalin’s regime before and after WWII. The most plausible estimate is 11 million.

Congo Free State

AD – MPE: 10

Wikipedia and White cite plausible expert estimates which range from 5 to 13 million victims of the Congo Free State from 1885 to 1908. Most experts consider 10 million victims as the most plausible estimate. Belgium was one of the most democratic governments in the world during this time period. Adam Hochschild explains in his fact-filled book: “King Leopold’s Ghost – A Story of Greed, Terror and Heroism in Colonial Africa” why he considers 10 million deaths to be the best estimate.

Atlantic Slave Trade From 1769

AD – MPE: 2.7

ND – MPE: 6.1

According to the website “Slave Voyages – Transatlantic Slave Trade Estimates” about 5,882,000 slaves were shipped across the Atlantic from 1769 to the end of the slave trade. How many of these slaves were shipped by democratic pioneers?

Portugal was an advanced democracy from 1836 and 1840. According to the website Portugal shipped about 335,000 slaves during this period. Britain shipped 1,033,000 slaves since 1769. The US shipped 180,000 slaves since 1769. France shipped 73,000 slaves when it was an advanced democracy from 1791 to 1799. So advanced democracies shipped around 1,621,000 slaves across the Atlantic since 1769. Nondemocracies transported 4,261,000 slaves during this time period.

White discusses estimates for the mortality rates of slaves in the Atlantic Slave Trade. It is clear that many slaves died before, during and after transportation. White explains his view that for every two slaves which were successfully transported and sold around three slaves died. The Wikipedia-article “Atlantic Slave Trade” writes: “The number of lives lost in the procurement of slaves remains a mystery but may equal or exceed the number who survived to be enslaved.” Of course many more slaves died at work.

The numbers of slaves shipped across the Atlantic can be a misleading indicator for the degree of involvement in slavery by a specific nation. The prosperous nations profited the most from cheap raw materials like cotton and consumer products like sugar and coffee from slave labor. Slave labor was of great importance for the Industrial Revolution in Britain, Western Europe and the United States. The United States used slave labor for many decades after the end of the slave trade. In fact, it possessed by far the largest slave population in the Americas. Stanley L. Engerman, Richard Sutch and Gavin Wright write in an article from 2003 called “Slavery – Historical Statistics of the United States Millennial Edition” for the University of California Project on the Historical Statistics of the United States: “Over the entire history of the trans-Atlantic slave trade, no more than 8 percent of the coerced African migrants came to mainland North America. The much larger U.S. share in the hemispheric slave population of 1860 (approximately 50 percent) is attributable to the very different demographic experience of slaves in North America than elsewhere in the New World”. For these reasons I blame the United States and Britain for a slightly higher percentage of the deaths from slavery than their involvement in the shipping suggests.

Plausible estimates for the number of slaves which were killed in the Atlantic Slave Trade by advanced democracies since 1769 range from 1 to 5 million. 2.7 million is the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of slaves who were killed in the Atlantic Slave Trade by nondemocracies since 1769 range from 2 to 10 million. 6.1 million is the most plausible estimate.

World War I

AD – MPE: 3.3

ND – MPE: 2.8

During World War One Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania were the major nondemocratic war parties. Germany, France, Britain, the US, Japan, Serbia, Belgium, Greece, Portugal, Canada, Australia and New Zealand were the most important advanced democracies during the war.

White gives an overview of expert estimates, which range from 5 to 13 million civilian deaths.

According to the Wikipedia-article “World War One Casualties” roughly 2.3 million civilians were directly killed during the war. This number includes roughly 1.5 million Armenians – 0.6 to 1.7 million – slaughtered by Turkey, which was supported by Germany. Jeremy Salt has convincingly shown in his magisterial book “The Last Ottoman Wars” that the number of Armenian victims is almost certainly closer to the low estimate of 0.6 million.

5.4 to 6.1 million civilians died from war-related diseases and famines. These numbers don’t include the Influenza Pandemic. Roughly 1 million of these deaths were the result of the hunger blockades against Germany, Austria-Hungary and Britain, including 0.1 German victims after the end of the war.

0.75 to 1 million civilians perished in the African colonies of the European powers. In his book “Tip & Run – The Untold Tragedy of the Great War in Africa” historian Edward Paice shows in great detail that Britain was responsible for at least 0.1 million civilian deaths and Germany for even more.

About 0.35 to 1 million died in the Great Famine of Mount Lebanon. Wikipedia explains why the politics of the Ottoman Empire, a blockade by the Entente powers and locust swarms were responsible. Lindsey Cummings also discusses evidence for the great importance of British, French, German and Ottoman policies in her thesis: “Economic Warfare and the Evolution of the Allied Blockade of the Eastern Mediterranean: 1914-1917”.

The Wikipedia-numbers do not include famine victims in Iran. The Wikipedia-article “Persian famine of 1917-1919” explains that British, Russian, Turkish and German policies during the war were partially responsible for the famine. The article discusses estimates which range from 2-10 million victims of famine and disease. In his in-depth book: “The Great Famine and Genocide in Iran 1917-1919” economic historian Mohammad Gholi Majd convincingly shows that brutal exploitation and violent repression by the British, Russian and Ottoman occupiers were responsible for huge numbers of excess deaths from famine and disease. He assigns most of the blame to the British, because they were the most powerful force in the country during most of the famine years. But according to his analysis Russian occupation forces share only slightly less responsibility than the British. Ottoman policies also contributed to the massive population losses during the war. Majd claims that roughly 8-10 million Iranians lost their lives. Many shocking details in his pioneering book have convinced me that millions perished in this politically induced famine. But his high numbers are very speculative. Other historians are sceptical about Majd’s calculations.

A 2014 article called “War Losses” by Antoine Prost for “1914-1918 Online – the International Encyclopedia of the First World War -” cites estimates by Westmoreland which amount to about 6.64 million civilian victims and estimates by Overmans which amount to 5.95 million civilian deaths.

Based on these numbers I conclude that nondemocracies killed 1.7 to 3.5 million civilians during WWI. The most plausible estimate is 2.6 million. Advanced democracies most likely killed 2.7 to 4.5 million innocent people during WWI. The most plausible estimate is 3.3 million.

Islamic Slave Trade From 1769

ND – MPE: 4.5

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites Ronald Segal’s numbers on the Arab Slave Trade from his book “Islam’s Black Slaves”. Segal discusses estimates by Ralph Austen, whose calculations suggest that 1.3 million slaves were transported in the Arab Slave Trade during the 18^th century. So around 400,000 must have been transported between 1769 and 1800. Austen estimates that 2 million slaves were transported in the 19^th century. Segal also discusses numbers by Raymond Mauvy, who estimates that roughly 2 millions were enslaved in the 18^th and 19^th centuries and 0.3 million in the 20^th century. But Segal also quotes scholars who believe that these numbers are too high.

White believes that mortality rates were roughly similar to the Atlantic Slave Trade – around three slaves died for every two slaves who were successfully transported and sold. Segal considers one estimate of a 9 percent death rate to be plausible, but low. He also quotes observers who witnessed much higher death rates on some slave trade routes.

Plausible estimates for the number of slaves who were killed in the Arab Slave Trade by nondemocracies since 1769 range from 1.5 to 7.7 million. 4.5 million is the most plausible estimate.

The Russian Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.5

ND – MPE: 3

The Communists, the White Armies and Japan were the main nondemocratic forces in the Russian Civil War from 1917 to 1922. Some of the Russian anti-Bolshevik forces considered themselves democratic and some of them were part of the democratic government after the February Revolution in 1917. For others it is impossible to say whether they would have ruled democratically if they had won the war. Germany, Britain, the United States and France were advanced democracies during this time period.

Britain, the US and France directly intervened in the civil war against the Bolsheviks. They supported their enemies with weapons, money, training and goods. They also enforced a blockade against Soviet Russia.

White cites 11 estimates for the overall deaths in the Russian Civil War. The median falls at roughly 9 million – 1 million military deaths, 5 million famine deaths, 2 million deaths by epidemic disease and 1 million civilians killed by terror and crossfire.

Historian Evan Mawdsley gives a comprehensive overview of the available numbers in his impressive book “The Russian Civil War”. He cites estimates ranging from 7 to 10 million overall deaths. He cites plausible estimates for directly killed civilians ranging from 0.5 to 0.6 million.

It is impossible to say how many of the roughly seven million deaths from famine and disease were victims of democide. The majority of victims probably died from the unintended consequences of World War I, revolution, chaos and civil war.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 1 to 6 million. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by democratic pioneers and democratic forces range from 0.1 to 1 million.

The Chinese Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.1

ND – MPE: 2.9

The Chinese Civil War had two phases. The Sino-Japanese War is sometimes considered another phase, but its victims are included in the numbers for WWII.

The Chinese Civil War had two phases. For the first phase from 1928 to 1937 White cites estimates for total deaths of up to 5 million deaths on his website “Necrometrics”, but most estimates are much lower. At least one million civilians were killed. Rudolph Rummel claims that 2.7 million civilians were killed. But he tends to claim the highest numbers in most of his work.

For the second phase from 1945 to 1949 White cites three studies that claim about 1 million overall deaths and one study that claims 3 million. He also cites estimates of around 630,000 troops killed on both sides in this phase. So plausible estimates for phase 2 range from 0.3 to 2 million civilians. On his website Rummel claims that up to 5 million people were killed in both phases of the civil war.

Plausible estimates for civilians killed in both phases of the war range from 1.3 to 4.7 million. The most plausible estimate is 3 million. The US strongly supported Chiang Kai-Tschek’s Kuomintang during much of the Civil War. So I blame them for two to six percent of the victims. I consider 0.1 million to be the most plausible estimate.

Anglo-Sudan War

AD – MPE: 1

ND – MPE: 2

Britain was a leading democracy during its wars with the Mahdist forces in the Sudan from 1881 to 1898.

White cites five estimates for overall population loss in the Sudan, which range from 4 to 6 million. He considers 5.5 million to be the most plausible estimate. Historian Steven Serels has written two books, in which he investigates several root causes for this massive population decline in the Sudan: “Starvation and the State: Famine, Slavery, and Power in Sudan, 1883-1956” and “The Impoverishment of the African Red Sea Littoral, 1640-1945”. He identifies a rinderpest epidemic and droughts as the most important factors. But he also shows in great detail how the misrule and war strategies of all war parties – Mahdist rebels, Anglo-Egyptian forces and their allies – greatly contributed to severe food insecurity, malnutrition, starvation and the spread of diseases. All sides regularly used economic manipulations and embargoes against the enemy which massively hurt the civilian population. The British even kept massive grain imports at the Red Sea Coast from reaching the interior at the height of the famine. Serels paints a very complex picture of war, destruction, famine and disease. But his analysis suggests that Mahdist misrule, war and dictatorship had a stronger impact than British policies.

Plausible estimates for the number of victims of British colonial policies in the Sudan range from 0.5 to 1.5 million. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by the Mahdist state range from 1 to 3 million.

The Korean War

AD – MPE: 1.1

ND – MPE: 0.6

Both Koreas were dictatorships during the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. But US support for South Korea was crucial. So I add 10 to 20 percent of the number of people killed by South Korea to the total number for democratic frontrunners.

White cites 8 estimates for the total number of people killed in the war, which range from 2.5 to 3.5 million. He considers 2 million to be the best estimate for the number of civilians killed by all sides.

Bruce Cumings writes in his book: “The Korean War – A History” that 0.4 million civilians were killed in South Korea and 1 million in North Korea. Most of the victims in the North were killed by a massive US bombing campaign, which destroyed 85 percent of North Korea’s buildings and 95 percent of its power generation.

The Wikipedia-entry “Bombing of North Korea 1950-1953” cites 5 estimates for the number of North Koreans killed, which range from 0.4 to 2 million, most of them civilians. I choose 1.05 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.5 to 2.1 million. I choose 1.1 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocracies range from 0.3 to 1 million. I choose 0.6 million as the most plausible estimate.

Civil Wars in the Sudan

AD – MPE: 0.05

ND – MPE: 1.6

White cites 8 estimates for the First Sudanese Civil War from 1955-1972, most of which claim that 0.5 million people died. One study claims that half of the victims were civilians. Most of them died in a famine. It is unclear how much of the famine resulted from political crimes. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.1 to 0.25 million. I choose 0.15 as the most plausible estimate.

White cites seven estimates for the Second Sudanese Civil War from 1983 to 2005, which range from 0.5 to 2 million victims of fighting, famine and disease. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.3 to 1.8 million. I choose 1.1 million as the most plausible estimate. The US supported Nimeiry’s regime with money and weapons for some time. West Germany introduced firearms in large numbers. Later the US indirectly supported the SPLA-rebels with money and weapons via neighbouring frontline states.

White cites estimates for the war in Darfur, which range from 0.2 to 0.4 million victims. He points out that the most credible sources suggest the lower number. The Wikipedia-article called “War in Darfur” cites a rigorous study by the Lancet, which finds 0.18 to 0.46 million excess deaths – 80 percent from disease. They consider 0.3 million to be the most plausible estimate. I consider 0.2 million to be the most plausible estimate for the number of innocent people killed by all parties in the war.

An in-depth study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine called “Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in South Sudan, December 2013-April 2018” estimates that 0.19 million people were directly killed by the war in the newly independent South Sudan. They also estimate that the conflict led to 0.38 million excess deaths. It is unclear how many of the victims were civilians or how many of the excess deaths from disease were the result of deliberate government policy. I choose 0.2 million as the most plausible estimate for the number of civilian victims. Elizabeth Shackelford has shown in her book “The Dissent Channel” that the US government supported the government of Salva Kiir with money, weapons, military training and diplomacy. This support was highly significant.

Plausible estimates for the total number of innocent people who were killed in these three major wars in the Sudan range from 0.5 to 2.3 million. I choose 1.65 as the most plausible estimate. I blame advanced democracies for 1 to 5 percent of the killings.

North Korea

ND – MPE: 1.6

White cites estimates for the number of people killed by the North Korean dictatorship after the Korean War, which range from 1.7 to 3 million. 0.4 to 2 million were directly killed or perished in labor camps.

The Wikipedia-article “North Korean Famine” cites plausible estimates for famine deaths in North Korea, which range from 0.2 to 3 million. The article notes that the most sophisticated study concludes that plausible estimates range from 0.6 to 1 million. It is not clear however, how many of the famine victims died because of devastating floods, government mistakes or government crimes. I could not find strong evidence that the government kept forcing misguided policies on the population even though the regime leadership was aware of the consequences. I think that the regime needs to be blamed for 15 to 85 percent of the famine deaths. I choose 50 percent as the most plausible estimate.

Plausible estimates for the total number of people killed by the regime in North Korea range from 0.5 to 3.3 million. I choose 1.6 million as the most plausible estimate.

Khmer Rouge

ND – MPE: 1.6

White cites estimates for the number of people killed by Pol Pot’s regime in Cambodia from 1975 to 1979, which range from 0.4 to 3.3 million. Plausible estimates range from 1 to 2.2 million – up to one million killed directly. White and the Wikipedia-article “Cambodian genocide” cite a sophisticated analysis by Historian Ben Kiernan, who has calculated that 1.6 to 1.9 million people were killed by the Khmer Rouge. I choose 1.6 as the most plausible estimate.

The United States, Britain and West Germany supported Khmer Rouge resistance against the Vietnamese occupation with indirect military support and diplomacy at the UN.

Second Indochina War

AD – MPE: 0.8

ND – MPE: 0.8

The Wikipedia-article called “Vietnam War casualties” cites estimates for the Second Indochina War from 1955 to 1975, which range from 1 to 3 million Vietnamese war deaths, plus 0.3 to 0.4 million Cambodian and Laotian war deaths. The high number of 3 million is the result of the most scientific and rigorous study. One million is certainly far too low. Plausible estimates for Vietnamese civilians killed range from 0.7 to 2 million. US-support for dictatorial regimes in South Vietnam was crucially important throughout the war. So I blame the United States for 10 to 20 percent of the civilians killed by South Vietnam. The US also supported dictatorial rule in Laos and Cambodia.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies in Indochina range from 0.5 to 1.1 million, including up to 60,000 people killed after the war by unexploded bombs dropped by the US and an unknown number of people killed by Agent Orange. The most plausible estimate is 0.8 million. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocracies range from 0.5 to 1.2 million. The most plausible estimate is 0.8 million.

Mengistu Haile

ND – MPE: 1.4

White cites estimates for the number of people killed by Mengistu Haile’s regime in Ethiopia, which range from 1.5 to 2 million. 1 million died in a famine, which was to a large degree the result of criminal government policies. Roughly 0.2 to 0.4 million died in wars.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by the communist regime range from 1 to 2 million. I choose 1.4 million victims as the most plausible estimate.

The United States supported the Derg regime in the beginning. Israel supported the regime with money, weapons and training.

Biafran War

AD – MPE: 0.1

ND – MPE: 1.1

White cites 15 estimates for the number of people killed in the Nigerian Civil War from 1967 to 1970. The median falls at 1 million. The Wikipedia-article called “Nigerian Civil War” cites estimates for the number of people killed by the blockade of Biafra, which range from 0.5 to 2 million. The blockade was a deliberate attempt by the central government to force the population of Biafra into submission. I choose 1.2 million as the most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed during the war.

Britain and British Petroleum supported the central government with money, weapons and diplomacy. This aid was highly significant. France supported the Biafran secessionists with weapons, mercenaries and diplomacy. Israel supplied both sides with weapons. I blame advanced democracies for 4 to 14 percent of the deaths.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocracies range from 0.4 to 1.9 million. The most plausible estimate is 1.1 million. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by democracies range from 0.06 to 0.18 million. The most plausible estimate is 0.12 million.

Second Congo War

AD – MPE: 0.04

ND – MPE: 1

The African countries and guerilla groups involved in the Second Congo War from 1998 to 2003 were nondemocratic. The US and Britain supported the Rwandan and Ugandan governments, which were major actors in the war. In the beginning they also backed Kabila’s government in the Congo. It isn’t clear, if this support had a major impact on the war. I blame advanced democracies for 4 to 12 percent of the crimes committed by their allies – 2 to 6 percent of the total number of deaths.

The most in-depth scientific study of the excess deaths toll in the war is contained in the “Human Security Report 2009/2010” from the Human Security Report Project at Simon Fraser University. The report convincingly shows that an earlier estimate of 5.4 million is far too high. The authors claim that 2.7 million is a more realistic number. Plausible estimates range from 2.7 to 3.3 million excess deaths. 3 million seems to be the most plausible estimate.

Most of these 3 million people died from diseases and malnourishment, which were the result of the war’s chaos and destruction. Plausible estimates for the number of people who were killed by nondemocratic forces in the war range from 0.5 to 1.5 million. The most plausible estimate is 1 million. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.02 to 0.1 million victims.

Wars in Afghanistan 1979-2001

AD – MPE: 0.1

ND – MPE: 0.9

White cites 5 estimates for the number of people who died in the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 1989 and the Afghan civil war of the 1990s, which range from 1.5 to 2 million. The Website “Mass Atrocity Endings” analyses casualty numbers for Afghanistan between 1979 and 1998 in an article called “Afghanistan: Soviet Invasion and civil war” . They conclude that reasonable estimates range from 0.8 to 1.5 million war deaths. They cite one estimate that 80 percent of the victims were civilians and around half of the deaths were caused by Soviet bombing.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by nondemocratic forces in the Afghan wars in the whole time period range from 0.5 to 1.7 million. The most plausible estimate is 0.9 million.

US support for the Mujahideen fighters was highly significant. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by this support from democratic frontrunners range from 0.05 to 0.15 million. The most plausible estimate is 0.1 million.

Dungan Revolt

AD – MPE: 0.03

ND – MPE: 0.97

White cites estimates for the number of people killed during the Dungan Revolt in China from 1862 to 1877, which range from 0.3 to 0.64 million. But the provinces affected by this civil war saw a large population decline which may have exceeded a million. So the numbers cited by White are probably too low.

Historian Hodong Kim’s book “Holy War in China” is the definite account of the Muslim Rebellion in Chinese Central Asia, Ya’qub Beg’s reign and the reconquest by Qing armies. He underlines the fact that the exact number of victims will never be known. But he presents evidence that tens of thousands of civilians were killed. All war parties besieged cities and towns.

The book suggests that direct killings and sieges were not the only reasons for the population decline. Mass emigration was another highly significant factor. It is also clear that the war led to economic hardship which was not intended by anyone.

I found no credible estimates for the number of innocent victims. The total population of Chinese Central Asia had probably been around one to two million before the rebellion. The Qing used tens of thousands of soldiers to defeat the Muslim state. The Muslim army had around 400,000 soldiers. So it is very unlikely that they killed millions of people. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed during the revolt range from 0.3 to 1.6 million. I choose one million as the most plausible estimate. I couldn’t find credible evidence for much higher numbers.

Britain supported the rebel forces with arms and diplomacy. They also had indirect responsibility for the outbreak of the rebellion. Hodong Kim shows that British colonialism in China contributed to the economic hardship which was a major cause of the Muslim rebellion. I blame them for 2 to 4 percent of the victims. The most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed by democratic pioneers is 0.03 million.

Great Irish Famine

AD – MPE: 1

The Wikipedia-article called “Great Famine (Ireland)” cites seven expert estimates on the number of people who died from hunger and disease during the Great Hunger in Ireland from 1845 to 1849, which range from to 0.7 to 1.5 million. The most plausible estimate is 1.1 million.

Two books contain convincing evidence that criminal policies by the British colonial regime were the main cause of the high famine mortality – John Kelly’s “The Graves Are Walking” and Susan Campbell Bartoletti’s “Black Potatoes”.

I choose 1 million victims of British colonialism during the Great Irish Famine as the most plausible estimate.

Rwandan Genocide

AD – MPE: 0.07

ND – MPE: 0.83

The Wikipedia-article called “Rwandan genocide” cites estimates for the number of people killed during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 and the civil war, which range from 0.6 to 1.1 million. The most plausible estimate seems to be around 0.9 million.

Andrew Wallis convincingly shows in his fact-filled book: “Silent Accomplice – The Untold Story of France’s Role in Rwandan Genocide” that France supported the government of Habyarimana and the Interahamwe paramilitaries with weapons, training, transport and diplomacy. This support was highly significant. The United States and Britain supported the Rwandan Patriotic Front. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.6 to 1 million. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.04 to 0.1 million.

Algerian War of Independence

AD – MPE: 0.7

ND – MPE: 0.18

The Wikipedia-article called “Algerian War” cites one expert estimate of 0.7 million Algerian civilians killed in the war from 1954 to 1962. It cites estimates for the number of civilians killed by the FLN which range from 0.1 to 0.25 million.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.5 to 1 million. I choose 0.7 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.1 to 0.25 million. I choose 0.18 as the most plausible estimate.

French Equatorial Africa

AD – MPE: 0.8

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites two estimates for the number of people killed in French Equatorial Africa, which range from 0.8 to 12 million. But the high estimate seems to be a wild guess. Adam Hochschild documents in “King Leopold’s Ghost” that the French rubber exploitation regime in the rain forest was smaller, but not less brutal than the Belgian system in the Congo Free State. He writes that the population loss in the French territories have also been estimated at 50 percent.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by the colonial regime in French Equatorial Africa range from 0.5 to 8 million. I choose 0.8 million as the most plausible estimate.

French Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars

AD – MPE: 0.25

ND – MPE: 0.55

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites estimates for the number of people killed during the French revolution, which range from 0.03 to 0.05 million. 0.04 million is the most plausible estimate. He cites three estimates, which claim that 1 million civilians died during the French Revolutionary Wars from 1792 to 1802 and the Napoleonic Wars from 1803 to 1815. According to one estimate 65 percent of the war victims died during the wars between Napoleon’s nondemocratic empire and its enemies and 35 percent died during the wars of the Republic, which I view as an advanced democracy from 1791 to 1799. All of France’s enemies in these wars except for Britain were nondemocracies. It isn’t clear how many of the civilians died from diseases. Napoleon’s rule can be characterized as authoritarian liberalism. His wars count among the most important examples of liberal imperialism in history. Despite of that I have categorized his reign as undemocratic.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocracies range from 0.3 to 0.8 million. 0.55 million is the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by democratic pioneers range from 0.1 to 0.5 million. 0.25 million is the most plausible estimate.

French Conquest of Algeria

AD – MPE: 0.1

ND – MPE: 0.6

White cites estimates for the number of people killed during the French conquest of Algeria, which range from 0.54 to 0.83 million. The higher number is the result of a more rigorous study by Historian Ben Kiernan, who analyzed the French conquest from 1830 to 1875. I choose 0.7 million as the most plausible estimate for the number of innocent people killed. France was an advanced democracy for only 7 out of 45 years in this time period.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by a nondemocracy range from 0.4 to 0.8 million. I choose 0.6 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by an advanced democracy range from 0.05 to 0.15 million. I choose 0.1 million as the most plausible estimate.

Mexican Revolution

AD – MPE: 0.18

ND – MPE: 0.5

White cites 17 estimates for total war deaths during the Mexican Revolution from 1910 to 1920, which range from 0.5 to 2 million. The most widely cited estimate is 1 million. Two studies claim that 0.12 million civilians were directly killed. One study claims that 0.75 million died of disease and hunger. It is unclear how many of these victims were deliberately targeted. Plausible estimates for the total number of innocent people killed during the revolution range from 0.2 to 1 million.

How many innocent people were killed by democratic forces? No Mexican government is ranked as an advanced democracy. But some of the major revolutionary forces under the leadership of Francisco Madero and Venustiano Carranza tried to establish a democratic system in Mexico. The US, Britain and Germany were all ranked as advanced democracies during the Mexican Revolution. Their interventions and support for opposing sides in the conflict had a highly significant impact.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.15 to 1 million. 0.5 million is the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by democratic forces range from 0.05 to 0.4 million. 0.18 million is the most plausible estimate.

Dutch Colonial Rule in Indonesia

AD – MPE: 0.65

The Wikipedia-article called “Indonesian National Revolution” cites estimates for the number of civilians killed from 1945 to 1949, which range from 0.03 to 0.1 million, the vast majority of them Indonesians. I choose 0.05 million as the most plausible estimate.

The Spanish flu killed less than 0.7 percent of the Dutch population, but 5 percent of the Indonesian population. 1.5 million Indonesians were killed by the Spanish Flu. If we assume that 40 percent of the excess mortality in Indonesia was caused by Dutch colonialism, the remaining increase would still have been more than four times higher than in the Netherlands. This makes it a reasonable assumption. It would mean that Dutch colonial policies were responsible for roughly 0.6 million excess deaths from the Spanish flu.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians who died as a result of Dutch colonialism and the independence struggle in Indonesia range from 0.3 to 0.9 million. I choose 0.65 million as the most plausible estimate.

Mozambican Civil War

ND – MPE: 0.6

The article “Mozambique: Civil War” on the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” cites credible studies which estimate that 0.1 million civilians were directly killed from 1977 to 1992, mostly by Renamo. The war resulted in 0.6 to 1 million excess deaths, mostly from famine and disease. Forced relocation of the population by Renamo forces and trade restrictions were major causes of famine and disease.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed during the civil war range from 0.3 to 0.9 million. I choose 0.6 million as the most plausible estimate.

West Germany, Portugal and Israel supported Renamo with money, weapons and/or intelligence. France and Britain supported the Mozambican government with weapons and military training. But South African support for Renamo was far more important.

Expulsion of Germans

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.58

The Wikipedia-article called “Demographic estimates of the flight and expulsion of Germans” cites 22 estimates for the number of deaths during the expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe from 1944 to 1950, which range from 0.4 to 2.2 million. It explains that the most sophisticated and rigorous estimates range from 0.4 to 0.6. I choose 0.6 million as the most plausible estimate.

We need to remember that Britain and the United States agreed to and accepted the Expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe, even though they tried to reduce the killings. I blame advanced democracies for 1 to 5 percent of the victims.

Panthay Rebellion

ND – MPE: 0.6

White cites three sources, which claim than 1 million people died during the Panthay Rebellion in China from 1855 to 1873. It remains unclear how many of these war deaths were civilians and how many of them died from war-related diseases. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed during the Panthay Rebellion range from 0.3 to 0.9 million. I choose 0.6 million as the most plausible estimate.

The imperial government was helped by French military experts.

Forced Labor in Portuguese and French Colonies

AD – MPE: 0.33

ND – MPE: 0.2

Rummel estimates that forced labor in the Portuguese colonies caused 0.33 million deaths from 1900 to 1925, 0.13 million in the Republican period. Portugal was an advanced democracy from 1908 to 1918. Rummel also claims over 0.2 million excess deaths among forced laborers in the French colonies.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic Portugal range from 0.18 to 0.21 million. The most plausible estimate is 0.2 million. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by democratic Portugal and France range from 0.22 to 0.44 million. The most plausible estimate is 0.33 million.

Bangladesh Genocide

AD – MPE: 0.04

ND – MPE: 0.46

White cites 15 estimates for the number of people killed in the Bangladesh genocide of 1971, which range from 0.3 to 3 million. The median of these estimates is 1.25 million. The Wikipedia-article called: “1971 Bangladesh genocide” claims that the most sophisticated and scientific studies give estimates which range from 0.3 to 0.5 million victims. I choose 0.5 million as the most plausible estimate.

Gary J. Bass convincingly shows in his book: “The Blood Telegram” that the US government aided and abetted its ally Pakistan in the mass slaughter. I blame the US for 4 to 13 percent of the victims.

Partition of India

ND – MPE: 0.5

White cites 14 estimates for the number of innocent people killed in the partition violence of 1947, which range from 0.2 to 0.6 million. Most sources claim 0.5 million. I choose 0.5 million as the most plausible estimate.

Many historians argue that the British bear a large share of the blame for the violence, because of their divide-and-conquer policies.

Indonesian Mass Killings of Suspected Communists

AD – MPE: 0.04

ND – MPE: 0.45

The article called “Indonesia: Assaults against the Communist Party” on the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” summarizes the research on the total number of deaths: “In thirty-nine articles and studies compiled in 1990 by Robert Cribb, a prominent expert on Indonesian history, the range of victims falls between 78,000 and 2,000,000. A scholarly consensus has settled on a figure of 400,000-500,000, but the correct figure, as noted by Cribb, could be half or twice as much.”

The Wikipedia-article called “Indonesian mass killings of 1965-66” cites expert estimates, which range from 0.45 to 1 million killings. It seems that the majority of victims were civilians or prisoners.

The United States supported the killings with money, arms, training, radio equipment, propaganda efforts, diplomacy and a list of people to be murdered. Britain and Australia also supported the government during the killings. Western support was highly significant. I blame advanced democracies for 3 to 13 percent of the victims. 0.04 million is the most plausible estimate.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians and prisoners killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.2 to 0.8 million. I choose 0.45 million as the most plausible estimate.

Angolan Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.04

ND – MPE: 0.36

In the article called “Angola: civil war” the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” cites 11 estimates for the number of war deaths from 1975 to 2002. Their numbers for civilians killed range from 0.05 to 1.5 million. The highest numbers include over a million deaths from malnutrition and disease. There were brutal sieges in the war, but most of these indirect deaths probably weren’t the result of criminal policies. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.1 to 0.8 million.

The US supported the FNLA and UNITA with money, weapons, training, mercenaries and diplomacy. This support was highly significant. France supported the MPLA with weapons. I blame democratic pioneers for 5 to 15 percent of the war victims.

I choose 0.36 as the most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces.

Second Italo-Ethiopian War

ND – MPE: 0.4

White cites a credible source, according to which about 0.7 million Ethiopians were killed by Italy’s conquest of Ethiopia from 1935 to 1937, roughly 0.4 of them civilians. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.3 to 0.5 million. 0.4 million is the most plausible estimate.

Shaka Zulu

ND – MPE: 0.4

White cites estimates of 1 and 2 million victims of Shaka Zulu’s reign from 1816 to 1828. But he underlines that these estimates are very old and highly controversial. There seems to be little evidence to support them. It is also unclear, how many of these victims were soldiers or civilians. John Laband is an expert on the history of the Zulu monarchy. In his book: “Eight Zulu Kings” he convincingly shows that it probably was not possible for the Zulu kingdom under Shaka’s brutal rule to kill a million innocent people. The principal weapon of the Zulu warriors was the spear. They almost certainly lacked manpower and logistics to kill 1 to 2 million people.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by Shaka’s regime range from 0.1 to 1.2 million. I choose 0.4 million victims as the most plausible estimate.

Iraq Invasion of 2003 and Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.12

ND – MPE: 0.24

The Wikipedia-article called “Casualties of the Iraq War” cites estimates for the number of war victims, which range from 0.18 to 1.2 million. The highest numbers have been subject to severe criticism by experts. But most numbers don’t cover the whole time period. 0.15 million civilians is a conservative number. Most civilians were killed by insurgents.

Western support for Iraqi security services with money, training, weapons and diplomacy was highly significant. I blame advanced democracies for 10 to 20 percent of victims killed by Iraqi security forces.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by advanced democracies range from 0.05 to 0.2 million. I choose 0.12 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.1 to 0.5 million. I choose 0.24 million as the most plausible estimate.

Idi Amin’s Regime

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.29

White cites 14 estimates for the number of civilians killed by Idi Amin’s regime, which range from 0.1 to 0.5 million. 0.3 million is the most plausible estimate.

Idi Amin’s regime was supported by Britain, Israel and West Germany, but only at the beginning. I blame democratic frontrunners for 2 to 4 percent of the victims.

Franco-Prussian War

ND – MPE: 0.3

The Wikipedia-article called “Franco-Prussian War” cites an expert estimate, which claims 0.25 million civilian deaths from 1870 to 1871. This number includes deaths from a smallpox epidemic. But according to other estimates smallpox took about 0.26 million lives on both sides.

White cites estimates for the total number of civilian deaths, which range from 0.5 to 0.79 million. But these numbers also include the smallpox victims.

After the capture of Emperor Napoleon III most of the French soldiers and irregular fighters fought for the democratic Third French Republic, which was established after the war. Here I largely ignore this fact, because France is ranked as a nondemocratic regime for the duration of the war. I do subtract 0.08 million for the nondemocracies from my estimates, because of the unclear goals of many French fighters.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces in the war range from 0.1 to 0.53 million. I choose 0.30 million as the most plausible estimate.

First Indochina War

AD – MPE: 0.16

ND – MPE: 0.13

The Wikipedia-article called “French Indochina War” cites estimates for the number of civilians killed from 1946 to 1954, which range from 0.1 to 0.4 million – 0.1 to 0.15 killed by the Viet Minh and 0.06 to 0.25 killed by French forces.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.07 to 0.2 million. I choose 0.13 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.06 to 0.27 million. I choose 0.16 million as the most plausible estimate.

Spanish Civil War and Franco Regime

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.27

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites estimates for the number of civilians killed by the Nationalists and Franco’s regime from 1936 to 1975, which range from 0.1 million to 0.4 million. He cites estimates for the number of civilians killed by the Republicans, which range from 0.02 to 0.07 million.

The Republicans contained democrats, anarchists and communists. It is hard to say whether they would have re-established a liberal democracy in Spain or not, if they had won the war. I divide the number of civilians killed by Republicans into two equal parts as killed by democratic and nondemocratic forces.

Franco’s Spain became an important military ally of the US during the Cold War.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.11 to 0.43. I choose 0.27 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by democratic forces range from 0.01 to 0.04. I choose 0.02 as the most plausible estimate.

Ethnic Cleansing of Aborigines and Maori

AD – MPE: 0.26

ND – MPE: 0.02

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites estimates, which claim that 0.02 million Aborigines were directly killed during the ethnic cleansing by Australian government forces and settlers. But Raymond Evans and Robert Ørsted-Jensen document in their 2014 study “‘I Cannot Say the Numbers that Were Killed’: Assessing Violent Mortality on the Queensland Frontier” that almost 0.07 million Aborigines were killed directly in Queensland alone.

White also cites estimates that 0.24 to 0.9 million Aborigines perished during the conquest of their lands. Most of them were killed by infectious diseases. It isn’t clear how many died by coming into contact with Europeans and how many died as a direct result of the loss of hunting grounds, forced resettlement and impoverishment.

The colonial power Britain was a democratic frontrunner from 1769 to 1818 and from 1837 onwards. The Guardian published an in-depth online article in March 2019 called “Killing Times: the Massacres of Aboriginal People Australia must Confront” by Lorena Allam and Nick Evershed, which contains an interactive timeline of massacres of Aborigines and Europeans. It clearly shows that the vast majority of victims were killed when Britain was an advanced democracy.

White cites one estimate, which claims that 0.2 million Maori perished during the conquest of their lands in New Zealand. Most were killed after 1837.

Australia and New Zealand have been advanced democracies since its independence from Britain.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by democratic pioneers range from 0.1 to 0.5 million. I choose 0.26 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.01 to 0.03 million. I choose 0.02 as the most plausible estimate.

Philippine-American War

AD – MPE: 0.27

The Wikipedia-article called “Philippine-American War” cites estimates for the number of civilians killed from 1899 to 1902,

which range from 0.2 to 1 million. If all victims of epidemics and malnutrition are included, plausible estimates for excess deaths go up to 0.8 million. It is difficult to estimate how many of these civilians fell victim to criminal policies. Rummel estimates 0.13 democides by the US. The US interned large numbers of Filipinos in camps with high mortality rates. They also burned down entire villages.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by the US range from 0.1 to 0.6 million. I choose 0.27 million as the most plausible estimate.

Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878

ND – MPE: 0.27

The Wikipedia article called “Russo-Turkish War (1877-1878)” cites plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed in the war, which range from 0.22 to 0.32 million. Matthew White cites similar estimates. I choose 0.27 as the most plausible estimate. Britain intervened with warships.

First Congo War

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.23

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites estimates for the number of people killed in the First Congo War from 1996 to 1997, which range from 0.2 to 0.3 million. Most of the victims were Hutu refugees, who were killed by the RPF and AFDL with strong support from Rwanda and Uganda. The US supported Rwanda, Uganda and Kabila. France supported Mobutu. I blame advanced democracies for 2 to 6 percent of the war victims.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocracies range from 0.18 to 0.28 million. I choose 0.23 as the most plausible estimate. 0.01 is the most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed by advanced democracies.

Yemen War Since 2015

AD – MPE: 0.05

ND – MPE: 0.18

An in-depth UNDP-report called “Assessing the Impact of War on Yemen” from 2019 estimates that 0.23 million Yemenis will have died as a result of the war and economic blockade, if the war ends in 2019. The Saudi-led coalition was responsible for around ¾ of civilian deaths. Its direct targeting of critical infrastructure and the naval blockade of the country are the main causes for the humanitarian crisis, which will have killed most of the victims according to the UNDP-report.

The US, Britain, France and Germany sold huge amounts of weapons including cluster munitions to Saudi Arabia before and during the war. The US also supports Saudi Arabia with technology, logistics, intelligence, target selection, training, air refueling for Saudi planes and diplomacy. The US and Britain directly supported the naval blockade of the country. The support by the US and Britain is highly significant. Both countries need to be considered war parties. I blame them for 15 to 35 percent of the victims from the Saudi-led military campaign and embargo.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.15 to 0.21. I choose 0.18 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.03 to 0.07. I choose 0.05 as the most plausible estimate.

Burundian Civil War

ND – MPE: 0.23

The article called “Burundi: Post-election killings and civil war” on the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” cites estimates for the number of civilians killed from 1993 to 2005 in Burundi, which range from 0.15 to 0.3 million. A large number of civilians died in camps after forced resettlement.

I choose 0.23 million as the most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces.

A 1997 report by Human Rights Watch called “Stoking the Fires – Military Assistance and Arms Trafficking in Burundi” shows that France supported the Burundian government with arms and military training until 1996.

Saddam Hussein’s Baathist Regime

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.2

The Wikipedia-article called “Human Rights in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq” cites estimates for the number of innocent people killed by Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime from 1979 to 2003, which range from 0.08 to 0.25 million – 0.05 to 0.1 million in the Anfal-campaign against the Kurds.

During the Anfal campaign the United States supported Iraq with money, weapons, intelligence, military training and diplomacy. France, West Germany, Britain, Spain and Switzerland and other advanced democracies supported Iraq with weapons and chemicals, which were used for chemical warfare against civilians. This support by democratic pioneers was highly significant. I blame these democracies for 2 to 8 percent of the victims.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by the dictatorship range from 0.08 to 0.25. I choose 0.20 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.01 to 0.02. I choose 0.01 as the most plausible estimate.

War of the Triple Alliance

ND – MPE: 0.21

The Wikipedia article called “Paraguayan War” cites 0.44 million as the best estimate for the total number of deaths from 1864 to 1870 – 63000 Brazilian and Argentinian civilians, 300000 Paraguayan soldiers and civilians. All these numbers could be far too low. Plausible estimates for the total number of civilians killed in the war range from 0.1 to 0.35 million. I choose 0.21 million as the most plausible estimate.

Siad Barre and Somali Civil War

ND – MPE: 0.2

White cites estimates that 0.5 million people were killed in the Somali Civil War after the fall of Siad Barre’s regime. But most of these victims died from famine and disease. It is unclear how many died as a result of criminal policies.

The article called “Somalia: Fall of Siad Barre and the civil war” on the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” cites estimates for the number of civilians killed by Barre’s regime and the civil from 1969 to 1991, which range from 0.05 to 0.1 million, half of them killed by the regime.

The United States gave substantial amounts of military aid to Siad Barre’s regime.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.05 to 0.3 million. I choose 0.2 million as the most plausible estimate.

German East Africa

AD – MPE: 0.2

The Wikipedia-article called “Maji Maji Rebellion” cites estimates for the number of deaths from the war in German East Africa from 1907 to 1908, which range from 0.25 to 0.3 million. Most of the victims died from famine and disease, which were caused in large part by Germany’s scorched-earth policy. I choose 0.2 million as the most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed by criminal German policies.

Germany was an advanced democracy at the time.

Cuban War of Independence

AD – NPE: 0.2

According to the Wikipedia-article called “Cuban War of Independence” 0.3 million Cubans died in the war from 1895 to 1898 – “most of them civilian fatalities in the concentration camps”. Spain was an advanced democracy at the time. The Cuban revolutionaries later established an advanced democracy. The United States intervened militarily in what became the Spanish-American War.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by advanced democracies and democratic forces range from 0.15 to 0.25.

Mexican War of Independence

ND – MPE: 0.2

White cites two estimates, which range from 0.25 to 0.5 million total deaths during the Mexican War of Independence from 1810 to 1821. I found no estimates for the number of civilians killed.

Many fighters on both sides struggled for democratic and liberal ideas. But democratic forces didn’t succeed in establishing an advanced democracy in either Mexico or Spain. That’s why I don’t assign any blame for the conflict to democratic forces. Their importance in this war is certainly an argument against blaming nondemocratic forces for very high numbers of victims.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.05 to 0.35 million. I choose 0.2 million as the most plausible estimate.

Haitian Revolution

AD – MPE: 0.1

ND – MPE: 0.1

The Wikipedia-article called “Haitian Revolution” cites two estimates for the number of people killed during the Haitian revolution from 1791 to 1804, which range from 0.2 to 0.35 million Haitians and 0.05 to 0.1 million French and British troops. Large numbers of Haitians were killed in the first uprisings of 1791 and 1792 when France was an advanced democracy. It is not clear how many Haitian civilians were killed by the British. Many of the rebels were inspired by the ideals of the French Revolution. But Haiti didn’t become an advanced democracy after independence.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by democratic frontrunners range from 0.02 to 0.25 million. I choose 0.1 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.02 to 0.25 million. I choose 0.1 million as the most plausible estimate.

Syrian Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.17

The Wikipedia-article called “Casualties of the Syrian Civil War” cites two estimates for the total number of civilians killed since 2011, which range from 0.11 to 0.22 million. Both estimates come from pro-opposition organizations. Their estimates for the number of civilians killed by government forces and its Russian allies range from 0.09 to 0.2 million. If these numbers were correct, the Assad regime and its allies would be responsible for roughly 90 percent of all civilian victims. The numbers for combatant casualties by one of these organizations – the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights – show that this is highly unlikely. They claim that the number of combatants killed by the opposing sides in the conflict was roughly the same. From this we would have to conclude that the rebel forces killed many times more combatants than civilians. We know that the opposition fighters were dominated by Islamist extremists who committed many atrocities against civilians. So their estimates for the number of civilians killed by opposition forces are probably far too low.

The United States supported opposition groups with money, arms, training and propaganda. Britain supported the opposition with propaganda. This support was highly significant. I blame them for 5 to 15 percent of the people killed by the opposition. This number is highly uncertain.

The independent research project called “Airwars” claims on their website that about 0.02 million civilians were killed in airstrikes by the US-led coalition.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.09 to 0.27 million. I choose 0.17 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by advanced democracies go up to 0.04 million. I choose 0.02 million as the most plausible estimate.

Guatemalan Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.16

The Wikipedia article called “Guatemalan Civil War” cites estimates for the number of people killed during the Guatemalan Civil War from 1960 to 1996, which range from 0.14 to 0.2 million. Over 90 percent of the victims were killed by government forces.

The United supported dictatorial governments in Guatemala with money, weapons, intelligence and training. This support was highly significant. I blame the US for 6 to 16 percent of the killings.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocracies range from 0.08 to 0.19 million. I choose 0.16 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.01 to 0.04 million. I choose 0.02 as the most plausible estimate.

Colombian Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.16

The Wikipedia-article called “Colombian conflict” cites an in-depth study, which estimates that 0.18 million civilians died in the Colombian Civil War from 1958 to 2013. Rightist paramilitaries killed most of the victims. They were supported by the Colombian state and US corporations.

The United States supported the Colombian government with money, weapons, training and intelligence. The support by the US government and US corporations was highly significant. I blame them for 6 to 16 percent of the people killed by the Colombian government and rightist paramilitaries.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.1 to 0.2 million. 0.16 million is the most plausible estimate. The most plausible estimate for the number of civilians killed by the US is 0.02 million.

Amazon Rubber Boom

AD – MPE: 0.14

ND – MPE: 0.04

Acoording to Rummel around 0.25 million indigenous people in the Amazon died as slaves during the Rubber Boom from 1879 to 1912. Javier Farje claims in a 2012 article for the “Latin American Bureau” called “The Putumayo Atrocities” that at least 0.1 million people have died during the brutal reign of the Anglo-Peruvian Amazon Rubber Company.

Peru was an advanced democracy at the time. Brazil was not. The rubber was mainly sold to Europe and North America, where it fuelled the Industrial Revolution.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies during the Rubber Boom range from 0.08 to 0.19 million. I choose 0.14 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.02 to 0.08 million. I choose 0.04 million as the most plausible estimate.

Ugandan Bush War

ND – MPE: 0.16

The Wikipedia-article called “The Ugandan Bush War” and White cite estimates for the total number of deaths in the Ugandan Bush War from 1981 to 1986, which range from 0.1 to 0.5 million. It is unclear how many of the victims were civilians. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed in the war range from 0.05 to 0.35 million. I choose 0.16 million as the most plausible estimate.

The Obote-government received military training and economic support from Britain and the USA.

Postwar Vietnam

ND – MPE: 0.16

White cites estimates for the number of people killed by the Communist regime in Vietnam after the Second Indochina War which range from 0.15 to 0.16 million. I choose 0.16 million as the most plausible estimate.

Colombia’s La Violencia

ND – MPE: 0.15

The Wikipedia-article called “La Violencia” cites estimates for the number of civil war deaths in Colombia from 1948 to 1958, which range from 0.2 to 0.3 million. I found no estimates for the number of civilians killed.

The US supported Colombian governments during “La Violencia” with weapons, especially the dictatorship of Gustavo Rojas Pinilla.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.1 to 0.24 million. I choose 0.15 million as the most plausible estimate.

Ethnic Cleansing of Native Americans in North America

AD – MPE: 0.13

ND – MPE: 0.02

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites an estimate which claims that 0.04 to 0.05 million Native Americans were directly killed during the ethnic cleansing by government forces and settlers. About 0.02 million whites were killed. Around 0.35 million Native Americans perished during the conquest of their lands. Most of them were killed by infectious diseases. It isn’t clear how many died by coming into contact with Europeans and how many died as a direct result of the loss of hunting grounds, forced resettlement and impoverishment. The historians Catherine M. Cameron, Paul Kelton and Atlan C. Swedlund have convincingly shown in their book “Beyond Germs – Native Depopulation in North America” that colonialism, ehtnic cleansing, slavery and genocidal warfare have made Native Americans mores susceptible to small pox and other diseases. It is impossible to say how many were killed by disease as a result of direct violence and discrimination. But government forces and settlers were clearly responsible for some of the deaths by disease.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by democratic pioneers range from 0.06 to 0.25 million. I choose 0.13 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.02 to 0.03 million. I choose 0.02 as the most plausible estimate.

American Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.12

The Polity IV-dataset does not analyse the Confederacy separately. It ranks the United States as a democracy. I think the Confederacy would be judged an “open anocracy”. So I classify both sides in the American Civil War as advanced democracies.

White cites estimates for the number of civilians killed in the Civil War from 1861 to 1865, which range from 0.05 to 0.1 million. These estimates do not include soldiers who died in captivity.

The Wikipedia-article called “American Civil War” cites estimates for the number of civilians killed which range from 0.1 to 0.2, including prisoner deaths. I choose 0.12 as the most plausible estimate.

Iran-Iraq War

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.09

The Wikipedia-article called “Iran-Iraq War” cites estimates for the number of Iranian civilians killed in the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, which range from 0.02 to 0.1 million. It is unclear how many Iraqi civilians were killed, but probably far fewer.

The United States supported Iraq with money, weapons, intelligence, military training and diplomacy. France, West Germany, Britain, Spain and Switzerland and other advanced democracies supported Iraq with weapons and chemicals, which were used for chemical warfare against civilians. The United States, Israel and other advanced democracies supported Iran with weapons. This support by democratic frontrunners was highly significant. I blame these democracies for 5 to 15 percent of the victims.

Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by nondemocracies in the war range from 0.05 to 0.12 million. I choose 0.09 million as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of innocent people killed by advanced democracies in the war range from 0.01 to 0.02 million. I choose 0.01 million as the most plausible estimate.

Indonesian Invasion and Occupation of East Timor

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.09

The article “Indonesia: East Timor” on the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” cites in-depth studies, which estimate that 0.1 million civilians were killed in the Indonesian invasion and occupation of East Timor from 1974 to 1999. Most of these civilians died from hunger and diseases, which were mostly the result of the forced resettlement of significant portions of the rural population into camps with high death rates.

The United States supported Indonesia with money, arms and diplomacy. Most of the arms used in the invasion were made in the US. Australia, Britain, Canada and Japan also supported the occupation. I blame democratic frontrunners for 5 to 15 percent of the killings.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.07 to 0.11. I choose 0.09 as the most plausible estimate.

Greco-Turkish War

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.09

White cites estimates for the civilians killed in the Greco-Turkish War from 1919 to 1922 and ethnic cleansings, which range from 0.02 to 0.28 million. But most estimates are below 0.1 million. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.05 to 0.28 million. I choose 0.1 million as the most plausible estimate.

Britain, France and their allies in World War I had promised Greece that they would support the annexation of territories in the western Ottoman Empire. These territories were granted as zones of influence to Greece in the Treaty of Sèvres. Britain encouraged the Greek invasion of Turkish territory. The support from the victorious powers of World War I for Greece was highly significant. I blame democracies for 5 to 15 percent of victims.

Java War

ND – MPE: 0.1

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites estimates which claim 0.2 million deaths during the Javanese uprising against Dutch colonial rule from 1825 to 1830, mostly from disease. It isn’t clear how many of the deaths were the result of criminal policies by the Dutch.

The Netherlands weren’t an advanced democracy at the time.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocracies range from 0.03 to 0.17 million. I choose 0.1 as the most plausible estimate.

Liberian Civil War

ND – MPE: 0.08

The article “Liberia” on the website “Mass Atrocity Endings” cites estimates for the number of people directly killed in the First Liberian Civil War from 1989 to 1996, which range from 0.03 to 0.08 million. The article explains that commonly cited figures ranging from 0.2 to 0.3 million include injuries and deaths from disease and malnutrition. It isn’t clear how many of the excess deaths were the result of political crimes.

Most war victims were killed by Charles Taylor’s NPFL.

The US gave significant amounts of military aid to Samuel Doe’s regime.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.03 to 0.09 million. I choose 0.08 as the most plausible estimate.

Lebanese Civil War

AD – MPE: 0.02

ND – MPE: 0.05

The Wikipedia article called “Lebanese Civil War” cites estimates for the number of people killed during the Lebanese Civil War from 1975 to 1990, which range from 0.12 to 0.15 million. But Haugbolle Sune writes in his article “The historiography and the memory of the Lebanese civil war” that the most realiable estimate is 0.09 million. It is not clear how many of the victims were civilians.

Israel invaded Lebanon and occupied parts of the country. It supported Christian militias with money, weapons, intelligence and training. This support was highly significant. The US, France, Italy and Britain intervened directly in the war. They also supported the Christian-dominated Lebanese government.

Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by nondemocracies range from 0.02 to 0.1 million. I choose 0.05 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed by advanced democracies range from 0.01 to 0.04 million. I choose 0.02 as the most plausible estimate.

Ten Years’ War

AD – MPE: 0.01

ND – MPE: 0.05

On his website “Necrometrics” White cites estimates, which claim that 0.1 million civilians died during the first Cuban war for independence from 1868 to 1878, most of them from disease. Many civilians were forced into camps by the Spanish forces. It is unclear how many died as a result of such measures.

Spain was an advanced democracy for only two years – 1871 and 1872. The Cuban rebels fought for a democratic system.

Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by advanced democracies range from 0.01 to 0.02 million. I choose 0.01 as the most plausible estimate. Plausible estimates for the number of people killed by nondemocratic forces range from 0.02 to 0.08 million. I choose 0.05 as the most plausible estimate.