Civil Wars in the Sudan

AD – MPE: 0.05

ND – MPE: 1.6

White cites 8 estimates for the First Sudanese Civil War from 1955-1972, most of which claim that 0.5 million people died. One study claims that half of the victims were civilians. Most of them died in a famine. It is unclear how much of the famine resulted from political crimes. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.1 to 0.25 million. I choose 0.15 as the most plausible estimate.

White cites seven estimates for the Second Sudanese Civil War from 1983 to 2005, which range from 0.5 to 2 million victims of fighting, famine and disease. Plausible estimates for the number of civilians killed range from 0.3 to 1.8 million. I choose 1.1 million as the most plausible estimate. The US supported Nimeiry’s regime with money and weapons for some time. West Germany introduced firearms in large numbers. Later the US indirectly supported the SPLA-rebels with money and weapons via neighbouring frontline states.

White cites estimates for the war in Darfur, which range from 0.2 to 0.4 million victims. He points out that the most credible sources suggest the lower number. The Wikipedia-article called “War in Darfur” cites a rigorous study by the Lancet, which finds 0.18 to 0.46 million excess deaths – 80 percent from disease. They consider 0.3 million to be the most plausible estimate. I consider 0.2 million to be the most plausible estimate for the number of innocent people killed by all parties in the war.

An in-depth study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine called “Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in South Sudan, December 2013-April 2018” estimates that 0.19 million people were directly killed by the war in the newly independent South Sudan. They also estimate that the conflict led to 0.38 million excess deaths. It is unclear how many of the victims were civilians or how many of the excess deaths from disease were the result of deliberate government policy. I choose 0.2 million as the most plausible estimate for the number of civilian victims. Elizabeth Shackelford has shown in her book “The Dissent Channel” that the US government supported the government of Salva Kiir with money, weapons, military training and diplomacy. This support was highly significant.

Plausible estimates for the total number of innocent people who were killed in these three major wars in the Sudan range from 0.5 to 2.3 million. I choose 1.65 as the most plausible estimate. I blame advanced democracies for 1 to 5 percent of the killings.